Tyler Phillips
Phillips is a sell-high — his ERA is running on luck.
His ERA is 3.51, but the number holding it there is his BABIP-against — .273, below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 346. That gap is luck, not skill, and it is flattering the ERA. His xERA tells the other side of the story: 4.59, more than a run above the ERA, and it has been stepping up across the sample. He strikes out 18.9% of batters, below the league average of 22%, and walks 9.8%, above the 8% mark, so there is no swing-and-miss foundation under the surface. He is allowing hard contact — a 42.8% hard-hit rate, above the 40% league average, on 346 batted balls. When the BABIP normalizes, the ERA follows it. Sell high. 6 K, 4.28 ERA, 1.37 WHIP rest of season — a deep-league drop, so sell into the trade window before regression hits.
VS His Norm
- Walk %9.8%—+2.0% ▲vs his ~7.8% career norm
- Strikeout %18.9%—+1.2% ▲vs his ~17.7% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.273 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.59 is 1.08 above the ERA — regression coming
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.