week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Tyler Phillips
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Phillips is a sell-high — his ERA is built on luck.
His ERA sits at 1.63, but the skill numbers do not match. The gap is driven by BABIP-against: .264, well below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 112 — that gap is luck, not repeatable skill. His expected ERA is 3.57, nearly two runs higher, and xERA needs 200 TBF to stabilize; at 165 TBF it is not fully reliable, but the direction is clear. His hard-hit rate and barrel rate allowed are below league average, which is real, but the ERA is unsustainably low. Limited data: this call rests on the first stable sample of the season. Sell high.
Sell High
high0.95
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.264 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.57 is 1.94 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL112 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL112 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.300
lg avg .315 ▼−.015too early to trust
NOISE165 / 200 TBF
xERA3.57
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.53too early to trust
NOISE165 / 200 TBF
ERA1.63
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.47too early to trust
NOISE38.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.0%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL165 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.5%too early to trust
NOISE165 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.264
lg avg .295 ▼−.031too early to trust
NOISE112 / 800 BIP