MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Tyler Phillips
week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Tyler Phillips

MIA·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High luck-free xERA 4.73 is 1.39 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.265 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 0ERA 4.37WHIP 1.37W 0–0SV 0–0

Phillips is a sell-high — his ERA is hiding behind BABIP luck.

His BABIP-against is .265 against a league average of .295, and that gap is doing the work in his 3.34 ERA. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable and he has 377, so the outs are falling his way and will not keep falling. Strip out the luck and his expected ERA is 4.73, a run and a third above his surface number, and it has been climbing across the sample — the skill is drifting the wrong way while the ERA sells the opposite story. His expected wOBA allowed of .332 sits above league average, his strikeout rate is 18.8% against a 22.0% league mark, and he walks 10.4% of batters. The stuff underneath is below average. The 96 mph fastball does not cover for that. Sell high. Sell high into a 4.37 ERA / 1.37 WHIP mirage — the trade window is the only asset here; this is a drop-tier arm once the regression lands.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %10.4%—+2.6% ▲vs his ~7.8% career norm
  • Strikeout %18.8%—+1.1% ▲vs his ~17.7% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.265 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.73 is 1.39 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.2%
42.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm —
377 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.0%
8.0%*
lg avg 8.0% 0.0%vs his norm —
377 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.332
believable since Jun 12.332*
lg avg .315 ▲+.017vs his norm —
538 / 200 TBF
xERA4.73
4.73*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.63vs his norm —
538 / 200 TBF
ERA3.34
3.34*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.76vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
126.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.8%
norm18.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.2%vs his norm +1.1% ▲
538 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.4%
norm10.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm +2.6% ▲
538 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.265
.265*
lg avg .295 ▼−.030vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
377 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.1%
12.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
538 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.5%
32.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.0%vs his norm —
538 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.0 mph
96.0 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.0 mphvs his norm —
2037 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.8%→18.5%signal0 K — K% 18.8% (signal) tempered to career ~17.7% → projected 18.5% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.73signal4.37 ERA — xERA 4.73 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 39 IP.
BB% 10.4% + contactsignal1.37 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.281 gives a 1.44 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0-0 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdrop4.37 ERA, 1.37 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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