MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
week 27
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW

Brendon Little

TOR·P
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 3.42 sits 0.68 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.436 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.90
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Little is a buy-low — the ERA is BABIP noise, not his arm.

His ERA is 6.58, and that number is doing him dirty. The culprit is his BABIP-against: .436, well above the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 61 — that gap is luck, not a signal about his pitching. Strip out the noise and his expected ERA is 3.42, which is 0.68 below league average. He strikes out 33.3% of batters, far above the league average of 22.0%, and his swinging-strike rate of 17.2% backs that up. His fastball velocity is 96.0 mph and stepping up across the sample. The arm is real; the surface is not. Buy low. The 3.70 ERA / 1.24 WHIP ROS line is a deep-league streamer's buy-low window, not a must-add.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %33.3%—+7.8% ▲vs his ~25.5% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.42 sits 0.68 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.436 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.0%
41.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —
61 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.6%
believable since Sep 246.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
61 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.286
.286*
lg avg .315 ▼−.029vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
129 / 200 TBF
xERA3.42
3.42*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.68vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
129 / 200 TBF
ERA6.58
6.58*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.48vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
27.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %33.3%
norm33.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+11.3%vs his norm +7.8% ▲
129 / 70 TBF
Walk %19.4%
norm19.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+11.4%vs his norm +5.9% ▲Walk % is above his ~13.5% norm — expect it to fall.
129 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.436
.436*
lg avg .295 ▲+.141vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
61 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %17.2%
17.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.2%vs his norm —
129 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.9%
30.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.4%vs his norm —
129 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.0 mph
96.0 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.0 mphvs his norm —
545 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 33.3%→28.5%signal0 K — K% 33.3% (signal) tempered to career ~25.5% → projected 28.5% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.42noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.42 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 5 IP.
BB% 19.4% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 19% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.306 gives a 1.68 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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