MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Drew Sommers
week 31
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW

Drew Sommers

DET·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 2.18 sits 1.92 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.369 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.90
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Sommers is a buy-low — the ERA is hiding a real arm

His BABIP-against is .369 against a league average of .295, and that gap is doing the damage. Balls in play need around 800 to become reliable and he has 90, so the extra hits are luck, not a hole in his game. Take the luck out and his expected ERA is 2.18 — nearly two runs better than league. The stuff backs it up: he strikes out 36.7% of batters, gets swings on 15.4% of pitches outside the zone, and holds hard contact to 30%, all well past the samples where those numbers become trustworthy. His fastball is sitting at 94.9 mph and climbing. The surface is noise and the skills underneath are steady. Buy low. Deep-league asset only while the 3.70 ERA and 1.24 WHIP sell the dip — buy the skills, not the stat line.

Drivers

  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.18 sits 1.92 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.369 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed30.0%
30.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−10.0%vs his norm —
90 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.3%
3.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.7%vs his norm —
90 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.229
.229*
lg avg .315 ▼−.086vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
169 / 200 TBF
xERA2.18
2.18*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.92vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
169 / 200 TBF
ERA3.63
3.63*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.47vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
39.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %36.7%
36.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+14.7%vs his norm —
169 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.3%
8.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
169 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.369
.369*
lg avg .295 ▲+.074vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
90 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.4%
15.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.4%vs his norm —
169 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.6%
35.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.1%vs his norm —
169 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.9 mph
94.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.9 mphvs his norm —
642 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 36.7%→34.2%signal0 K — K% 36.7% (signal) tempered to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 34.2% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 2.18noise3.70 ERA — xERA 2.18 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 1 IP.
BB% 8.3% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.303 gives a 1.13 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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