MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Drew Sommers
week 25
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW

Drew Sommers

DET·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 2.18 sits 1.92 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.377 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.90
ROSK 3ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Sommers is a buy-low — his ERA is BABIP noise, not the arm

His ERA is 3.86, and it should be lower. The number inflating it is his BABIP-against: .377, 82 points above the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 73 — that gap is luck, not a signal about his pitching. Strip it out and his expected ERA is 2.18, nearly two runs below league average, on 139 batters faced of the 200 needed to trust it. The skill underneath is loud: he strikes out 36% of batters, well above the league's 22%, and he allows hard contact on just 27.4% of balls in play. His fastball is sitting at 95.0 mph and has been stepping up across the sample. The stuff is real; the surface is not. Buy low. A 3.70 ERA / 1.24 WHIP ROS profile is a deep-league asset only — but the mispriced surface makes buying the dip the right call.

Drivers

  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.18 sits 1.92 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.377 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed27.4%
27.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−12.6%vs his norm —
73 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed2.7%
2.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−5.3%vs his norm —
73 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.230
.230*
lg avg .315 ▼−.085vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
139 / 200 TBF
xERA2.18
2.18*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.92vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
139 / 200 TBF
ERA3.86
3.86*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.24vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
32.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %36.0%
36.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+14.0%vs his norm —
139 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.4%
9.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
139 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.377
.377*
lg avg .295 ▲+.082vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
73 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.3%
15.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.3%vs his norm —
139 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.3%
35.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.8%vs his norm —
139 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.0 mph
95.0 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.0 mphvs his norm —
548 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 36.0%→33.6%signal3 K — K% 36.0% (signal) tempered to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 33.6% over ~3 remaining IP.
xERA 2.18noise3.70 ERA — xERA 2.18 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 1 IP.
BB% 9.4% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.302 gives a 1.18 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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