week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Mason Adams
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (5.09); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 4.10WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0
Adams is a hold — average skill, and nothing unstable is moving it.
ROS projects K 5 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.09)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed56.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+16.3%vs his norm —
80 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
80 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.343
lg avg .315 ▲+.028vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
124 / 200 TBF
xERA5.09
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.99vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
124 / 200 TBF
ERA4.03
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.07vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
29 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —
124 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
124 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.338
lg avg .295 ▲+.043vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
80 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
124 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
124 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.1 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.9 mphvs his norm —
468 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.0%→24.4%signal0 K — K% 25.0% (signal) tempered to SP mean ~22.0% → projected 24.4% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.09noise4.10 ERA — xERA 5.09 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 4.10 at 4 IP.
BB% 9.7% + contactnoise1.30 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.38 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.10 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.