week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Nick Pivetta
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.20); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 4.10WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0
Pivetta is a hold — league average with the sample still filling in.
ROS projects K 24 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %30.0%—+3.8% ▲vs his ~26.2% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.20)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
89 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
89 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.277
lg avg .315 ▼−.038vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
140 / 200 TBF
xERA3.20
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.90vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
140 / 200 TBF
ERA2.86
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.24vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
34.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %30.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+8.0%vs his norm +3.8% ▲
140 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm −2.7% ▼Walk % is below his ~8.4% norm — expect it to rise.
140 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.287
lg avg .295 ▼−.008vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
89 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
140 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.0%vs his norm —
140 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.0 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph 0.0 mphvs his norm —
578 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 30.0%→27.7%signal0 K — K% 30.0% (signal) tempered to career ~26.2% → projected 27.7% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.20noise4.10 ERA — xERA 3.20 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 4.10 at 16 IP.
BB% 5.7% + contactnoise1.30 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.11 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.10 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.