week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Phil Maton
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (6.73); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 25ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Maton is a hold — league average with no edge to exploit.
ROS projects K 22 YTD → 25 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %23.8%—−2.8% ▼vs his ~26.6% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (6.73)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.3%vs his norm —
79 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed12.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.7%vs his norm —
79 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.389
lg avg .315 ▲+.074vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
130 / 200 TBF
xERA6.73
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.63vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
130 / 200 TBF
ERA6.08
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.98vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
26.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm −2.8% ▼
130 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm +2.3% ▲Walk % is above his ~9.2% norm — expect it to fall.
130 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.370
lg avg .295 ▲+.075vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
79 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
130 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
130 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo90.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−3.8 mphvs his norm —
523 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.8%→25.5%signal25 K — K% 23.8% (signal) lifted to career ~26.6% → projected 25.5% over ~20 remaining IP.
xERA 6.73noise3.70 ERA — xERA 6.73 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 19 IP.
BB% 11.5% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.302 gives a 1.49 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.