week 10
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW
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Jack Perkins
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Perkins is a buy-low — ERA is BABIP noise, not skill.
Limited data: this call rests on the first stable sample of the season. His ERA is 5.46, inflated by a BABIP-against of .333 — 38 points above the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to stabilize; he has 79, so that gap is luck, not a signal about his stuff. Strip out the noise: his expected ERA is 3.14, over two runs lower. His hard-hit rate allowed is 34.2% and barrel rate allowed is 5.1%, both well below league averages and past their stabilization thresholds. He strikes out 26.4% of batters, above the league norm. The skill is real; the surface is not. Buy low.
Buy Low
high0.90
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.333 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.8%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL79 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.9%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL79 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.282
lg avg .315 ▼−.033too early to trust
NOISE125 / 200 TBF
xERA3.14
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.96too early to trust
NOISE125 / 200 TBF
ERA5.46
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.36too early to trust
NOISE28 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL125 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.4%too early to trust
NOISE125 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.333
lg avg .295 ▲+.038too early to trust
NOISE79 / 800 BIP