Jack Perkins
Perkins is a buy-low — his ERA is BABIP noise, not skill.
His fastball velocity has been stepping up across the sample and now sits at 96.0 mph, two ticks above league average. That kind of arm strength is real, and it shows up in his 27.3% strikeout rate and 13.2% swinging-strike rate, both well above league. The problem? His ERA is 6.87, inflated by a .329 BABIP-against — 34 points above league. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to stabilize; he has 162. That gap is luck, not a reflection of his stuff. His xERA is 4.22, essentially league average, and his xwOBA allowed and barrel rate allowed track right with league. The skill is a usable arm; the ERA is a distraction. Buy low. 29 K with a 4.04 ERA and 2-4 SV make him a streaming-only arm for shallow leagues.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %27.3%—+2.8% ▲vs his ~24.5% career norm
- Walk %8.7%—−0.0% ▼vs his ~8.7% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.22 is right around league — a usable arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.329 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
- p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.