week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Robbie Ray
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell High luck-free xERA 4.78 is 1.39 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.259 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 13ERA 4.54WHIP 1.41W 0–1SV 0
Ray is a sell-high — his ERA is hiding below-average skill.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %19.9%—−8.3% ▼vs his ~28.2% career norm
- Walk %12.1%—+2.1% ▲vs his ~10.0% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.259 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.78 is 1.39 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.4%vs his norm —
433 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
433 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.335
lg avg .315 ▲+.020vs his norm —
638 / 200 TBF
xERA4.78
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.68vs his norm —
638 / 200 TBF
ERA3.39
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.71vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
151.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm −8.3% ▼
638 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.1%vs his norm +2.1% ▲
638 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.259
lg avg .295 ▼−.036vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
433 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
638 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
638 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.1 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.9 mphvs his norm —
2588 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.9%→21.9%signal13 K — K% 19.9% (signal) lifted to career ~28.2% → projected 21.9% over ~13 remaining IP.
xERA 4.78signal4.54 ERA — xERA 4.78 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 63 IP.
BB% 12.1% + contactsignal1.41 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.276 gives a 1.48 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop13 K ROS, 4.54 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.