Is Robbie Ray a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell High — surface results exceed what the underlying metrics support; sell into the hype.

What is Robbie Ray's rest-of-season outlook?

3.59 ERA hides a 4.82 xERA and 12% walk rate.

week 31

this weekSELL-HIGH

last weekSELL-HIGH

Robbie Ray

SD·P

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31

Sell High luck-free xERA 4.82 is 1.23 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.262 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95

ROSK 0ERA 4.57WHIP 1.41W 0–0SV 0

Ray is a sell-high — the ERA is hiding a regression problem

His ERA sits at 3.59, but his expected ERA is 4.82 — more than a run higher, and that gap is the whole story. The number holding the ERA down is his BABIP-against: .262 against a league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 476. That gap is luck, not skill. The xERA has been climbing across the sample, which is the wrong direction for anyone betting on the surface line. He strikes out 19.9% of batters, below the league average of 22.0%, and he walks 12.0%, well above the 8.0% mark. There is no swing-and-miss margin to absorb the correction. The results are running ahead of the process, and the process is the part that repeats. Sell high. With a 4.57 ERA and 0 K ROS, the sell-high window is a drop — 1.41 WHIP is a tax, not an asset.

VS His Norm

Strikeout %19.9%—−8.3% ▼vs his ~28.2% career norm
Walk %12.0%—+2.0% ▲vs his ~10.0% career norm

Drivers

babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.262 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.82 is 1.23 above the ERA — regression coming

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Hard-Hit % Allowed37.4%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —

476 / 50 BBE

Barrel % Allowed8.0%

lg avg 8.0% 0.0%vs his norm —

476 / 60 BBE

xwOBA Allowed.335

lg avg .315 ▲+.020vs his norm —

702 / 200 TBF

xERA4.82

lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.72vs his norm —

702 / 200 TBF

ERA3.59

lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.51vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.

165.7 / 200 IP

Strikeout %19.9%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm −8.3% ▼

702 / 70 TBF

Walk %12.0%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.0%vs his norm +2.0% ▲

702 / 170 TBF

BABIP Against.262

lg avg .295 ▼−.033vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.

476 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %11.4%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —

702 / 60 TBF

Chase %28.2%

lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —

702 / 60 TBF

Fastball Velo93.1 mph

lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.9 mphvs his norm —

2854 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

K% 19.9%→21.7%signal0 K — K% 19.9% (signal) lifted to career ~28.2% → projected 21.7% over ~0 remaining IP.

xERA 4.82signal4.57 ERA — xERA 4.82 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 63 IP.

BB% 12.0% + contactsignal1.41 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.275 gives a 1.47 skill WHIP, blended 6…

run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.

role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.

rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.57 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons