week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Robbie Ray
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Ray is a sell-high — his ERA is luck, not skill.
His ERA is 4.45, but the underlying numbers say it should be worse. His BABIP-against is .268, 27 points below the league average of .295 — suppressing his ERA. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 179. That gap is luck, not a repeatable skill. His expected ERA is 5.17, nearly three-quarters of a run higher than his actual ERA, and his xERA has been stepping up across the sample. He allows barreled balls at a 12.3% clip, well above the 8.0% league average, and his expected wOBA allowed is .354 against a .315 league average. His walk rate is elevated at 11.5%. There is no elite-stuff story to fall back on when the BABIP normalizes. Sell high.
Sell High
high0.94
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.268 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 5.17 is 0.72 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.6%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL179 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed12.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.3%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL179 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.354
lg avg .315 ▲+.039trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL269 / 200 TBF
xERA5.17
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.07trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL269 / 200 TBF
ERA4.45
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.35too early to trust
NOISE62.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL269 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.5%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL269 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.268
lg avg .295 ▼−.027too early to trust
NOISE179 / 800 BIP