week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Robbie Ray
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell High luck-free xERA 4.61 is 1.23 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.239 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 60ERA 4.43WHIP 1.39W 2–4SV 0
Ray is a sell-high — his ERA is living on luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %20.3%—−7.9% ▼vs his ~28.2% career norm
- Walk %11.7%—+1.7% ▲vs his ~10.0% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.239 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.61 is 1.23 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
301 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
301 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.331
lg avg .315 ▲+.016vs his norm —
443 / 200 TBF
xERA4.61
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.51vs his norm —
443 / 200 TBF
ERA3.38
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.72vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
106.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm −7.9% ▼
443 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.7%vs his norm +1.7% ▲
443 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.239
lg avg .295 ▼−.056vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
301 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
443 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
443 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.7 mphvs his norm —
1809 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.3%→22.7%signal60 K — K% 20.3% (signal) lifted to career ~28.2% → projected 22.7% over ~57 remaining IP.
xERA 4.61signal4.43 ERA — xERA 4.61 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 63 IP.
BB% 11.7% + contactsignal1.39 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.274 gives a 1.44 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role2-4 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop60 K ROS, 4.43 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.