Is Adrian Houser a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Adrian Houser's rest-of-season outlook?

16% strikeout rate can't cover a 4.95 xERA

week 31

this weekSELL

last weekSELL

Adrian Houser

SF·P

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31

ON THE 60-DAY IL

Sell stable xERA 4.95 +0.85 vs league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling; move on.high 0.81

ROSK 0ERA 4.65WHIP 1.35W 0–0SV 0

Houser is a sell — his xERA is climbing and the strikeouts are gone.

His expected ERA is 4.95, .85 worse than league average, and it has been stepping up across the sample. That is the wrong direction for a pitcher at this point in the season. The driver is his strikeout rate: 16%, six points below league, and it is falling — his career baseline is 18% and he is now under it. A swinging-strike rate of 8.4%, against 11% league, says the whiffs are not going to come back on their own. His walk rate is fine at 7.2%. His BABIP-against tells us nothing, but here it does not need to. The contact he allows (.339 xwOBA) is above league, and there is no suppressed luck stat to blame. Sell. 0 K and a 4.65 ERA make him a drop — fringe waiver material, not a hold while the skills keep sliding.

VS His Norm

Strikeout %16.0%—−2.0% ▼vs his ~18.0% career norm
Walk %7.2%—−1.7% ▼vs his ~8.9% career norm

Drivers

xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.95 +0.85 vs league with no luck excuse
p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Hard-Hit % Allowed42.0%

lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —

357 / 50 BBE

Barrel % Allowed8.7%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —

357 / 60 BBE

xwOBA Allowed.339

lg avg .315 ▲+.024vs his norm —

470 / 200 TBF

xERA4.95

lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.85vs his norm —

470 / 200 TBF

ERA4.02

lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.08vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.

109.7 / 200 IP

Strikeout %16.0%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.0%vs his norm −2.0% ▼

470 / 70 TBF

Walk %7.2%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm −1.7% ▼

470 / 170 TBF

BABIP Against.277

lg avg .295 ▼−.018vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.

357 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %8.4%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —

470 / 60 TBF

Chase %25.8%

lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.7%vs his norm —

470 / 60 TBF

Fastball Velo95.7 mph

lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.7 mphvs his norm —

1731 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

K% 16.0%→16.6%signal0 K — K% 16.0% (signal) lifted to career ~18.0% → projected 16.6% over ~0 remaining IP.

xERA 4.95signal4.65 ERA — xERA 4.95 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 56 IP.

BB% 7.2% + contactsignal1.35 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.287 gives a 1.38 skill WHIP, blended 65…

run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.

role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.

rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.65 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons