Is Adrian Houser a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Adrian Houser's rest-of-season outlook?

16% strikeouts can't support a 4.02 ERA.

week 25

this weekSELL

last weekSELL

Adrian Houser

SF·P

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25

ON THE 60-DAY IL

Sell stable xERA 4.91 +0.81 vs league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling; move on.high 0.79

ROSK 8ERA 4.63WHIP 1.35W 0–1SV 0

Houser is a sell — stable skill sits below league and nothing is unlucky.

His expected ERA is 4.91, .81 above the league average of 4.1, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. Nothing about it is bad luck: he strikes out 16% of batters, well below league average, and that rate has been stepping down across the sample and now sits below his career baseline of 18%. His expected wOBA allowed is .339, above the .315 league mark. He throws hard at 95.7 mph, but the fastball has not bought him swings or misses — an 8.4% swinging-strike rate trails the 11% league rate — so there is no strikeout upside hiding underneath the surface. There is no luck story to fall back on; this is the level he's at. Sell. 8 K and a 4.63 ERA ROS is a drop — waiver-wire drag, streaming-only, not a hold.

VS His Norm

Strikeout %16.0%—−2.0% ▼vs his ~18.0% career norm
Walk %7.2%—−1.7% ▼vs his ~8.9% career norm

Drivers

xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.91 +0.81 vs league with no luck excuse
p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Hard-Hit % Allowed42.0%

lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —

357 / 50 BBE

Barrel % Allowed8.7%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —

357 / 60 BBE

xwOBA Allowed.339

lg avg .315 ▲+.024vs his norm —

470 / 200 TBF

xERA4.91

lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.81vs his norm —

470 / 200 TBF

ERA4.02

lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.08vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.

109.7 / 200 IP

Strikeout %16.0%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.0%vs his norm −2.0% ▼

470 / 70 TBF

Walk %7.2%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm −1.7% ▼

470 / 170 TBF

BABIP Against.277

lg avg .295 ▼−.018vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.

357 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %8.4%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —

470 / 60 TBF

Chase %25.8%

lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.7%vs his norm —

470 / 60 TBF

Fastball Velo95.7 mph

lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.7 mphvs his norm —

1731 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

K% 16.0%→16.6%signal8 K — K% 16.0% (signal) lifted to career ~18.0% → projected 16.6% over ~12 remaining IP.

xERA 4.91signal4.63 ERA — xERA 4.91 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 56 IP.

BB% 7.2% + contactsignal1.35 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.287 gives a 1.38 skill WHIP, blended 65…

run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.

role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.

rosterdrop8 K ROS, 4.63 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons