week 10
this weekSELL
last weekSELL
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Adrian Houser
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Houser is a sell — his numbers are trending the wrong way.
His expected ERA is 5.66 — a run and a half above the league average of 4.10 — and he has enough batters faced for that number to be reliable. There is no luck story to soften the picture: his BABIP-against is right around league average and his walk rate is also average. The deeper problem is that his strikeout rate is 13.6%, which is well below the league norm of 22% and has been stepping down as the season progresses. With a 14-percentage-point gap between his K rate and the league, his ceiling is capped. His xwOBA allowed is .368, .053 above league average, and the contact quality allowed is also above average: 44.9% hard-hit, 9.1% barrels. None of this is noise — this is the level he is at. Sell.
Sell
high0.90
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.66 +1.56 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.9%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL198 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL198 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.368
lg avg .315 ▲+.053trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL257 / 200 TBF
xERA5.66
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.56trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL257 / 200 TBF
ERA5.59
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.49too early to trust
NOISE56.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %13.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−8.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL257 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL257 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.310
lg avg .295 ▲+.015too early to trust
NOISE198 / 800 BIP