week 17
this weekSELL
last weekSELL
Adrian Houser
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell stable xERA 5.06 +0.96 vs league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling; move on.high 0.84 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 36ERA 4.72WHIP 1.38W 1–3SV 0
Houser is a sell — skill is below league, no luck to mask it.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %15.5%—−2.5% ▼vs his ~18.0% career norm
- Walk %7.6%—−1.3% ▼vs his ~8.9% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.06 +0.96 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —
268 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —
268 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.345
lg avg .315 ▲+.030vs his norm —
354 / 200 TBF
xERA5.06
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.96vs his norm —
354 / 200 TBF
ERA4.95
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.85vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
80 / 200 IP
Strikeout %15.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.5%vs his norm −2.5% ▼
354 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm −1.3% ▼
354 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.285
lg avg .295 ▼−.010vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
268 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm —
354 / 60 TBF
Chase %25.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−3.3%vs his norm —
354 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.5 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.5 mphvs his norm —
1297 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 15.5%→16.4%signal36 K — K% 15.5% (signal) lifted to career ~18.0% → projected 16.4% over ~55 remaining IP.
xERA 5.06signal4.72 ERA — xERA 5.06 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 56 IP.
BB% 7.6% + contactsignal1.38 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.42 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop36 K ROS, 4.72 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.