Rest of Season Projection
AdrianCategoryTyler
60K →94
4.95ERA →4.05
1.42WHIP →1.38
2–5W ←1–2
0SV0
Current Season
AdrianCategoryTyler
35K →57
5.59ERA ←6.04
1.56WHIP →1.54
2W ←1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Adrian Houser
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.41 +1.31 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Tyler Mahle
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.05 sits 0.05 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.335 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Adrian Houser: 61 K / 4.95 ERA. Tyler Mahle: 95 K / 4.04 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).