week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Matt Festa
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (3.92); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.84WHIP 1.28W 0–0SV 0–0
Festa is a hold — his expected ERA says exactly league average.
ROS projects K 27 YTD → 0 ROS, ERA 4.68 YTD → 3.84 ROS, WHIP 1.24 YTD → 1.28 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Walk %7.3%—−1.6% ▼vs his ~8.9% career norm
- Strikeout %23.9%—−1.0% ▼vs his ~24.9% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.92)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
193 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
193 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.305
lg avg .315 ▼−.010vs his norm —
289 / 200 TBF
xERA3.92
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.18vs his norm —
289 / 200 TBF
ERA3.78
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.32vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
66.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm −1.0% ▼
289 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm −1.6% ▼
289 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.317
lg avg .295 ▲+.022vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
193 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —
289 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.8%vs his norm —
289 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.7 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.3 mphvs his norm —
1102 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.9%→24.3%signal0 K — K% 23.9% (signal) lifted to career ~24.9% → projected 24.3% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.92signal3.84 ERA — xERA 3.92 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 25 IP.
BB% 7.3% + contactsignal1.28 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.300 gives a 1.30 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-0 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.84 ERA, 1.28 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.