MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Matt Festa
week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Matt Festa

CLE·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (3.84); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60
ROSK 5ERA 3.79WHIP 1.26W 0–0SV 0–0

Festa is a hold – league-average, and the strikeout rate says so.

His expected ERA is 3.84, which is a touch below the league average of 4.10 and the number sits on enough batters faced to trust. His expected wOBA allowed is .303, again near the middle of the pack. What lifts him slightly above the baseline is the strikeout rate, 24.7% versus a league mark of 22.0%, and a swinging-strike rate of 13.5% against 11.0%. But the contact he allows is ordinary to a fault: a 40.8% hard-hit rate and an 8.0% barrel rate against the same allowed, and his fastball plays at 92.6 mph. His expected ERA has been stepping down across the sample, so there is real movement here, but it is not enough to move him off neutral. Hold. 5 K / 3.79 ERA deep-league hold only — a neutral arm, not an asset to chase.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %6.8%—−2.1% ▼vs his ~8.9% career norm
  • Strikeout %24.7%—−0.2% ▼vs his ~24.9% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.84)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.8%
40.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
174 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.0%
8.0%*
lg avg 8.0% 0.0%vs his norm —
174 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.303
believable since Aug 3.303*
lg avg .315 ▼−.012vs his norm —
263 / 200 TBF
xERA3.84
3.84*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.26vs his norm —
263 / 200 TBF
ERA3.88
3.88*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.22vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
60.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.7%
norm24.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.7%vs his norm −0.2% ▼
263 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.8%
norm6.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm −2.1% ▼
263 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.333
.333*
lg avg .295 ▲+.038vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
174 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.5%
13.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
263 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.8%
30.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —
263 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.6 mph
92.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.4 mphvs his norm —
986 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.7%→24.8%signal5 K — K% 24.7% (signal) held to career ~24.9% → projected 24.8% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 3.84signal3.79 ERA — xERA 3.84 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 25 IP.
BB% 6.8% + contactsignal1.26 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.303 gives a 1.27 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-0 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.79 ERA, 1.26 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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