week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Matt Festa
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.51); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 25ERA 3.74WHIP 1.24W 0–1SV 0–2
Festas a hold — limited data, league-average indicators.
ROS projects K 27 YTD → 25 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %22.5%—−2.4% ▼vs his ~24.9% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.51)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
116 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
116 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.328
lg avg .315 ▲+.013vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
169 / 200 TBF
xERA4.51
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.41vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
169 / 200 TBF
ERA3.99
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.11vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
38.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm −2.4% ▼
169 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm −1.9% ▼Walk % is below his ~8.9% norm — expect it to rise.
169 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.309
lg avg .295 ▲+.014vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
116 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
169 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.1%vs his norm —
169 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.8 mphvs his norm —
617 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.5%→23.8%signal25 K — K% 22.5% (signal) lifted to career ~24.9% → projected 23.8% over ~22 remaining IP.
xERA 4.51noise3.74 ERA — xERA 4.51 (noise) blended 5% skill / 95% league 3.70 at 25 IP.
BB% 7.1% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.297 gives a 1.30 skill WHIP, blended 5%…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-2 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.74 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.