MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
week 27
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Nate Lavender

NYM·P
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Sell High BABIP-against 0.244 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 2.18 is 0.44 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.73
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Lavender is a sell-high — the ERA is a mirage built on luck.

His ERA is 1.74, but few things about the number are repeatable. The mark is held down by his BABIP-against: .244, against a league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 46; that gap is luck, not a skill he owns. His expected ERA, which removes the defense and sequencing, is 2.18 — modest on its own, but it sits above the ERA, which means the surface has been propped up, not earned. He throws hard enough to miss bats and he gets a lot of whiffs, but nothing here says he is the pitcher the box score paints. He is a reliever with a hot start and a thin sample. Sell high. Sell into the 3.70 ERA / 1.24 WHIP line — a deep-league trade window, not a hold.

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.244 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.18 is 0.44 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed32.6%
32.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.4%vs his norm —Hard-Hit % Allowed is below the ~40.0% league average — expect it to rise.
46 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.7%
8.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
46 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.229
.229*
lg avg .315 ▼−.086vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
76 / 200 TBF
xERA2.18
2.18*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.92vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
76 / 200 TBF
ERA1.74
1.74*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.36vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
20.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %34.2%
34.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+12.2%vs his norm —
76 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.3%
5.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.7%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
76 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.244
.244*
lg avg .295 ▼−.051vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
46 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.5%
13.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
76 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.8%
29.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
76 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.5 mph
92.5 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.5 mphvs his norm —
281 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 34.2%→32.2%signal0 K — K% 34.2% (signal) tempered to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 32.2% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 2.18noise3.70 ERA — xERA 2.18 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 1 IP.
BB% 5.3% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 5% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.02 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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