MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Seth Johnson

ATH·P
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see BABIP-against 0.356 elevated and unstable, the 6.19 ERA overstates the damage; but luck-free xERA 4.69 is +0.59 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.55
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Johnson is a hold — the panic on his ERA is overdone.

His ERA reads 6.19, but most of that damage is luck, not pitching. His BABIP-against is .356 against a league average of .295, and that gap is noise — BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable and he has 92. So the surface is worse than he is. But the number he regresses to is not a buy either: his expected ERA is 4.69, .59 above league average, with only 150 batters faced of the 200 needed for that to settle. He misses bats at 25.3%, above league, and his fastball sits 97.8 mph, but he also gives up barrels on 12.0% of batted balls, above league. Limited sample: this call rests on the first look. Hold. 0 K and 3.70 ERA won't move any category — a deep-league hold, not a roster-anywhere arm.

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.356 elevated and unstable — the 6.19 ERA overstates the damage
  • xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 4.69 is +0.59 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.6%
44.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.6%vs his norm —
92 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed12.0%
12.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.0%vs his norm —
92 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.331
.331*
lg avg .315 ▲+.016vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
150 / 200 TBF
xERA4.69
4.69*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.59vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
150 / 200 TBF
ERA6.19
6.19*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.09vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
32 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.3%
25.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.3%vs his norm —
150 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.0%
12.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.0%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
150 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.356
.356*
lg avg .295 ▲+.061vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
92 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.5%
12.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
150 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.5%
28.5%*
lg avg 28.5% 0.0%vs his norm —
150 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.8 mph
97.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.8 mphvs his norm —
569 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.3%→25.0%signal0 K — K% 25.3% (signal) tempered to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 25.0% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.69noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.69 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 5 IP.
BB% 12.0% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.302 gives a 1.48 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups