MLB Daily DeltaWeek 19 · August 3, 2026
week 19
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW

Seth Johnson

PHI·P
data as of August 3, 2026·week 19
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 4.16 is right around league, a usable arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.318 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.90
ROSK 18ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Johnson is a buy-low — ERA noise, arm is real

His ERA is 5.51, but the skill it hides is league average or better. The real culprit is his BABIP-against at .318, 23 points above league average. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 45, so that gap is luck, not a reflection of his pitching. His expected ERA is 4.16, right at league average, meaning the arm is usable. The fastball tells the same story: 97.9 mph, nearly 4 ticks above league average, and the velocity has been stepping up across the sample. He also strikes out 25% of batters and gets chases at a rate below league average, which is fine. The surface is lying; the arm is not. Buy low. 18 K at 3.70 ERA / 1.24 WHIP in a deep-league buy — trust the skill, not the surface.

Drivers

  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.16 is right around league — a usable arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.318 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.6%
35.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.4%vs his norm —Hard-Hit % Allowed is below the ~40.0% league average — expect it to rise.
45 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.9%
8.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
45 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.315
.315*
lg avg .315 .000vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
80 / 200 TBF
xERA4.16
4.16*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.06vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
80 / 200 TBF
ERA5.51
5.51*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.41vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
16.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.0%
25.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —
80 / 70 TBF
Walk %17.5%
17.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+9.5%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
80 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.318
.318*
lg avg .295 ▲+.023vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
45 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.7%
12.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
80 / 60 TBF
Chase %22.5%
22.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−6.0%vs his norm —
80 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.9 mph
97.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.9 mphvs his norm —
323 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.0%→24.8%signal18 K — K% 25.0% (signal) tempered to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 24.8% over ~14 remainin…
xERA 4.16noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.16 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 5 IP.
BB% 17.5% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 18% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.73 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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