week 17
this weekSELL
last weekSELL
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %18.4%—−2.9% ▼vs his ~21.3% career norm
- Walk %10.5%—+2.2% ▲vs his ~8.3% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.73 +0.63 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
323 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
323 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.335
lg avg .315 ▲+.020vs his norm —
457 / 200 TBF
xERA4.73
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.63vs his norm —
457 / 200 TBF
ERA4.11
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.01vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
105 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.6%vs his norm −2.9% ▼
457 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm +2.2% ▲
457 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.277
lg avg .295 ▼−.018vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
323 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
457 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
457 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.6 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.4 mphvs his norm —
1837 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.4%→19.3%signal40 K — K% 18.4% (signal) lifted to career ~21.2% → projected 19.3% over ~57 remaining IP.
xERA 4.73signal4.51 ERA — xERA 4.73 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 63 IP.
BB% 10.5% + contactsignal1.42 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.288 gives a 1.48 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role2-5 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop40 K ROS, 4.51 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.