MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Andrew Abbott
week 25
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Andrew Abbott

CIN·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell stable xERA 4.88 +0.78 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.78
ROSK 9ERA 4.61WHIP 1.42W 1–1SV 0

Abbott is a sell — the skill is below league and the ERA is not the reason

His expected ERA is 4.88, nearly a full run above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The underlying contact profile supports it: he allows a .338 expected wOBA against a league average of .315, and his strikeout rate of 18.1% is well below the league's 22%. His walk rate of 10.5% is above league average and has had enough batters to trust. There is nothing unlucky here to explain the gap. His hard-hit rate allowed is actually slightly better than league and his barrel rate is right at league, so the damage is not coming from one inflated luck stat — the expected numbers are simply what they are. His swinging-strike rate and fastball velocity both sit below league, and his xERA has been stepping up across the sample rather than settling lower. This is the level he's at, and the surface line will find it. Sell. 9 K and a 4.61 ERA the rest of the way makes him a drop — deep-league streamer only if you're desperate for volume.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %18.1%—−3.1% ▼vs his ~21.3% career norm
  • Walk %10.5%—+2.2% ▲vs his ~8.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.88 +0.78 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.2%
38.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
472 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.1%
8.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
472 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.338
.338*
lg avg .315 ▲+.023vs his norm —
664 / 200 TBF
xERA4.88
4.88*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.78vs his norm —
664 / 200 TBF
ERA4.43
4.43*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.33vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
152.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.1%
norm18.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.9%vs his norm −3.1% ▼
664 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.5%
norm10.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm +2.2% ▲
664 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.278
.278*
lg avg .295 ▼−.017vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
472 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.4%
10.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
664 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.2%
29.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
664 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.4 mph
92.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.6 mphvs his norm —
2628 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.1%→18.8%signal9 K — K% 18.1% (signal) lifted to career ~21.2% → projected 18.8% over ~13 remaining IP.
xERA 4.88signal4.61 ERA — xERA 4.88 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 63 IP.
BB% 10.5% + contactsignal1.42 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.285 gives a 1.48 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop9 K ROS, 4.61 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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