week 10
this weekSELL
last weekSELL
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Andrew Abbott
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Abbott is a sell — skill below league, no luck excuse.
His expected ERA sits at 4.97, nearly a full run above league average, and the sample — 271 batters faced — is large enough to trust. His xwOBA allowed is .348, 33 points above the .315 league mark, and there is no luck story softening the blow: his BABIP-against is near average, so the ERA is not being held down by good fortune. The strikeout rate is 15.5%, well below the 22% league average, and it is stepping down across the sample. The ceiling is capped. The contact-suppression numbers are unspectacular — barrel rate and hard-hit rate both near league average. Without a luck gap or a skill uptick to point to, this is the level he is at. Sell.
Sell
high0.81
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.97 +0.87 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL201 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.0%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL201 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.348
lg avg .315 ▲+.033trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL271 / 200 TBF
xERA4.97
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.87trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL271 / 200 TBF
ERA4.02
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.08too early to trust
NOISE62.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %15.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.5%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL271 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.0%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL271 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.281
lg avg .295 ▼−.014too early to trust
NOISE201 / 800 BIP