MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Tyler Kinley
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Tyler Kinley

DET·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.42, 0.68 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.80
ROSK 5ERA 3.42WHIP 1.38W 0–1SV 0

Kinley is a buy — the contact suppression is earned

His expected ERA is 3.42, 0.68 below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced 201 batters — past the 200 where that number becomes reliable. The gap is built on contact quality, not luck: he allows a 29.5% hard-hit rate against a 40% league average, and his xwOBA allowed of .287 beats the .315 league mark across a full stable sample. That xERA has been stepping down as the season has gone, and his fastball has ticked up to 94.4 mph, so nothing here is propped up by a suppressed BABIP or a soft schedule. The one crack is an 11.9% walk rate, above league, which caps the ceiling. The skill is real and the sample supports it. Buy. Deep-league only at 5 K and 0 SV, but the 3.42 ERA makes him an asset to stash now.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %22.9%—−1.1% ▼vs his ~23.9% career norm
  • Walk %11.9%—+1.0% ▲vs his ~10.9% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.42, 0.68 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed29.5%
29.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−10.5%vs his norm —
129 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.0%
7.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
129 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.287
believable since Sep 8.287*
lg avg .315 ▼−.028vs his norm —
201 / 200 TBF
xERA3.42
3.42*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.68vs his norm —
201 / 200 TBF
ERA3.49
3.49*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.61vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
49 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.9%
norm22.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm −1.1% ▼
201 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.9%
norm11.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.9%vs his norm +1.0% ▲
201 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.227
.227*
lg avg .295 ▼−.068vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
129 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.7%
12.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
201 / 60 TBF
Chase %26.3%
26.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.2%vs his norm —
201 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.4 mph
94.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.4 mphvs his norm —
800 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.9%→23.4%signal5 K — K% 22.9% (signal) lifted to career ~23.9% → projected 23.4% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 3.42signal3.42 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.42 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 11.9% + contactsignal1.38 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.284 gives a 1.45 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.42 ERA, 1.38 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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