week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Tyler Kinley
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (2.87); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 23ERA 3.66WHIP 1.24W 2–5SV 0
Kinley is a hold — league-average, nothing driving volatility.
ROS projects K 28 YTD → 23 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %25.5%—+1.6% ▲vs his ~23.9% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.87)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed25.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−15.0%vs his norm —
88 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —
88 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.265
lg avg .315 ▼−.050vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
137 / 200 TBF
xERA2.87
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.23vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
137 / 200 TBF
ERA3.48
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.62vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
33.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm +1.6% ▲
137 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm −1.4% ▼Walk % is below his ~10.9% norm — expect it to rise.
137 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.256
lg avg .295 ▼−.039vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
88 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm —
137 / 60 TBF
Chase %25.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−3.1%vs his norm —
137 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.5 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.5 mphvs his norm —
545 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.5%→24.6%signal23 K — K% 25.5% (signal) tempered to career ~23.9% → projected 24.6% over ~21 remaining…
xERA 2.87noise3.66 ERA — xERA 2.87 (noise) blended 5% skill / 95% league 3.70 at 26 IP.
BB% 9.5% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.291 gives a 1.32 skill WHIP, blended 5…
run support + role2-5 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.66 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.