MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Tyler Kinley
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Tyler Kinley

DET·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.47, 0.63 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.79
ROSK 0ERA 3.47WHIP 1.37W 0–0SV 0

Kinley is a buy — the earned run prevention is real

His expected ERA is 3.47, well below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to hold. The gap is not built on luck. His xwOBA allowed is .288, .027 better than league, and his hard-hit rate allowed sits at 27.7% — 12 points under the league's 40%. Batted balls against him stay off the barrel. His fastball is up to 94.4 mph and climbing, and that velocity has been stable across the sample. The one soft spot is walks: 11.2% against a league average of 8%, which caps how clean the run prevention looks. That is a command gap, not a contact gap, and it does not undo the profile. He is getting hitters out on contact and missing bats at a league rate. Buy. 0 SV in Detroit means the 3.47 ERA and 1.37 WHIP arrive as a deep-league hold, not a save source — buy the ratios anyway.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %20.7%—−3.3% ▼vs his ~23.9% career norm
  • Walk %11.2%—+0.3% ▲vs his ~10.9% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.47, 0.63 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed27.7%
27.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−12.3%vs his norm —
155 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.5%
6.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
155 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.288
believable since Sep 8.288*
lg avg .315 ▼−.027vs his norm —
232 / 200 TBF
xERA3.47
3.47*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.63vs his norm —
232 / 200 TBF
ERA3.45
3.45*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.65vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
57.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.7%
norm20.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm −3.3% ▼
232 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.2%
norm11.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.2%vs his norm +0.3% ▲
232 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.210
.210*
lg avg .295 ▼−.085vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
155 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.2%
12.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
232 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.2%
27.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
232 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.4 mph
94.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.4 mphvs his norm —
909 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.7%→22.2%signal0 K — K% 20.7% (signal) lifted to career ~23.9% → projected 22.2% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.47signal3.47 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.47 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 11.2% + contactsignal1.37 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.279 gives a 1.43 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.47 ERA, 1.37 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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