Is Kyle Leahy a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Kyle Leahy's rest-of-season outlook?

xERA 5.34 — a full run worse than his ERA.

week 17

this weekSELL

last weekSELL

Kyle Leahy

STL·P

data as of July 18, 2026·week 17

Sell stable xERA 5.34 +1.24 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.90

ROSK 46ERA 4.91WHIP 1.40W 3–7SV 0

Leahy is a sell — the skill is below league and stable.

His expected ERA is 5.34, a full 1.24 runs above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced 388 batters — past the point where xERA becomes reliable. The batted-ball evidence confirms the trouble: he allows a 50.4% hard-hit rate against a league average of 40.0%, and a 10.9% barrel rate against 8.0%. His strikeout rate is 19.3%, below league average, and his walk rate is essentially league average. There is no luck story to fall back on; this is the level he is at. The xERA has been trending up over time, not down. The market may still see a major-league arm, but the numbers say a below-average one. Sell. 46 K and a 4.91 ERA make this a clear drop in standard leagues.

VS His Norm

Walk %8.5%—+0.6% ▲vs his ~7.9% career norm
Strikeout %19.3%—−0.4% ▼vs his ~19.7% career norm

Drivers

xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.34 +1.24 vs league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Hard-Hit % Allowed50.4%

lg avg 40.0% ▲+10.4%vs his norm —

274 / 50 BBE

Barrel % Allowed10.9%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —

274 / 60 BBE

xwOBA Allowed.353

lg avg .315 ▲+.038vs his norm —

388 / 200 TBF

xERA5.34

lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.24vs his norm —

388 / 200 TBF

ERA3.73

lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.37vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.

89.3 / 200 IP

Strikeout %19.3%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.7%vs his norm −0.4% ▼

388 / 70 TBF

Walk %8.5%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm +0.6% ▲

388 / 170 TBF

BABIP Against.319

lg avg .295 ▲+.024vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.

274 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %9.9%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —

388 / 60 TBF

Chase %26.0%

lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.5%vs his norm —

388 / 60 TBF

Fastball Velo94.1 mph

lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.1 mphvs his norm —

1475 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

K% 19.3%→19.4%signal46 K — K% 19.3% (signal) held to career ~19.7% → projected 19.4% over ~55 remaining IP.

xERA 5.34signal4.91 ERA — xERA 5.34 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 55 IP.

BB% 8.5% + contactsignal1.40 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.303 gives a 1.45 skill WHIP, blended 65…

run support + role3-7 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.

role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.

rosterdrop46 K ROS, 4.91 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons