MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Kyle Leahy
week 25
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Kyle Leahy

STL·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell stable xERA 4.85 +0.75 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.78
ROSK 10ERA 4.59WHIP 1.33W 1–2SV 0

Leahy is a sell — the contact he allows is below league.

His expected ERA is 4.85, three-quarters of a run above the league average of 4.1, and the sample is past the point where that number becomes reliable. Nothing in the profile explains the gap away as bad luck. He allows a 47.8% hard-hit rate, nearly eight points above league, and his barrel rate of 10.0% is above average too. Those contact numbers come from 391 batted balls, well past where they stabilize. His strikeout rate sits at 22.2%, essentially league average, so he is not missing enough bats to cover for the hard contact. The underlying numbers are stable and they point the same direction. Sell. 10 K and a 4.59 ERA the rest of the way makes him deep-league waiver fodder, not a hold.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %22.2%—+2.5% ▲vs his ~19.7% career norm
  • Walk %6.8%—−1.1% ▼vs his ~7.9% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.85 +0.75 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed47.8%
47.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+7.8%vs his norm —
391 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.0%
10.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
391 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.337
.337*
lg avg .315 ▲+.022vs his norm —
559 / 200 TBF
xERA4.85
4.85*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.75vs his norm —
559 / 200 TBF
ERA3.41
3.41*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.69vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
132 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.2%
norm22.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm +2.5% ▲
559 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.8%
norm6.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm −1.1% ▼
559 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.328
.328*
lg avg .295 ▲+.033vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
391 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.5%
10.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
559 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.0%
27.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
559 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.2 mph
94.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.2 mphvs his norm —
2192 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.2%→21.5%signal10 K — K% 22.2% (signal) tempered to career ~19.7% → projected 21.5% over ~12 remaining…
xERA 4.85signal4.59 ERA — xERA 4.85 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 55 IP.
BB% 6.8% + contactsignal1.33 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.311 gives a 1.35 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop10 K ROS, 4.59 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups