Is Kyle Leahy a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Kyle Leahy's rest-of-season outlook?

3.66 ERA hides a 4.89 xERA and .330 BABIP luck

week 31

this weekSELL

last weekSELL

Kyle Leahy

STL·P

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31

Sell stable xERA 4.89 +0.79 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.79

ROSK 0ERA 4.61WHIP 1.34W 0–0SV 0

Leahy is a sell — his xERA is trending the wrong way

His expected ERA is 4.89, .79 above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. Contact quality allowed explains it: he gives up a 47% hard-hit rate against a league average of 40%, and 9.8% barrels against 8.0%. His expected wOBA allowed is .337, .022 above league. There is no luck story to point to. His BABIP-against is not dragging the line down, and his walk rate of 6.9% is actually better than league average, so the damage is coming from the quality of contact, not from a few misplaced pitches. The strikeout rate does not balance it either: 22.1%, right at league average. The trend is what makes this worse. His expected ERA has stepped up across the sample. This is what he is right now, not a slump. Sell. 0 K and 4.61 ERA ROS is a waiver-wire drag, so fade the production and drop him.

VS His Norm

Strikeout %22.1%—+2.4% ▲vs his ~19.7% career norm
Walk %6.9%—−1.0% ▼vs his ~7.9% career norm

Drivers

xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.89 +0.79 vs league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Hard-Hit % Allowed47.0%

lg avg 40.0% ▲+7.0%vs his norm —

417 / 50 BBE

Barrel % Allowed9.8%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm —

417 / 60 BBE

xwOBA Allowed.337

lg avg .315 ▲+.022vs his norm —

596 / 200 TBF

xERA4.89

lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.79vs his norm —

596 / 200 TBF

ERA3.66

lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.44vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.

140 / 200 IP

Strikeout %22.1%

lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm +2.4% ▲

596 / 70 TBF

Walk %6.9%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm −1.0% ▼

596 / 170 TBF

BABIP Against.330

lg avg .295 ▲+.035vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.

417 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %10.5%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —

596 / 60 TBF

Chase %27.2%

lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —

596 / 60 TBF

Fastball Velo94.3 mph

lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.3 mphvs his norm —

2328 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

K% 22.1%→21.5%signal0 K — K% 22.1% (signal) tempered to career ~19.7% → projected 21.5% over ~0 remaining IP.

xERA 4.89signal4.61 ERA — xERA 4.89 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 55 IP.

BB% 6.9% + contactsignal1.34 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.313 gives a 1.37 skill WHIP, blended 65…

run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.

role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.

rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.61 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons