MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Luis Mey

CIN·P
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see BABIP-against 0.386 elevated and unstable, the 6.42 ERA overstates the damage; but luck-free xERA 4.76 is +0.66 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.55
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Mey is a hold — the ERA is noise, but the skill is below league

His BABIP-against is .386, 91 points above the league average of .295, and BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable. He has 87. That gap is why his 6.42 ERA looks worse than the pitching underneath it. The problem is what that pitching actually is. His expected ERA is 4.76, .66 above the league average of 4.10, so the level he regresses toward is below average, not a bargain. The stuff is genuinely interesting — 29.6% strikeouts, a 97.3 mph fastball — but limited data: this call rests on the first sample of the season, and 162 batters faced is short of what we need to trust the expected ERA. The panic is unwarranted; so is a buy. Hold. Deep-league hold only: 3.70 ERA and 1.24 WHIP offer no strikeout or save path.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %29.6%—+5.0% ▲vs his ~24.6% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.386 elevated and unstable — the 6.42 ERA overstates the damage
  • xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 4.76 is +0.66 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed46.0%
46.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+6.0%vs his norm —
87 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.0%
8.0%*
lg avg 8.0% 0.0%vs his norm —
87 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.333
.333*
lg avg .315 ▲+.018vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
162 / 200 TBF
xERA4.76
4.76*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.66vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
162 / 200 TBF
ERA6.42
6.42*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.32vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
33.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %29.6%
norm29.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.6%vs his norm +5.0% ▲
162 / 70 TBF
Walk %13.6%
norm13.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.6%vs his norm −5.4% ▼Walk % is below his ~19.0% norm — expect it to rise.
162 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.386
.386*
lg avg .295 ▲+.091vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
87 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.7%
12.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
162 / 60 TBF
Chase %23.0%
23.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−5.5%vs his norm —
162 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.3 mph
97.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.3 mphvs his norm —
652 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 29.6%→26.9%signal0 K — K% 29.6% (signal) tempered to career ~24.6% → projected 26.9% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.76noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.76 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 8 IP.
BB% 13.6% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 14% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.305 gives a 1.48 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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