MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Yunior Tur

ATH·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · wait & see BABIP-against 0.413 elevated and unstable, the 16.34 ERA overstates the damage; but luck-free xERA 9.28 is +5.18 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.55
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Tur is a hold — the 16.34 ERA overstates the damage, but the skill is below league

His BABIP-against is .413, well above the .295 league average, and that gap is luck: BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable and he has 52. The inflated ERA will come down on its own as those batted balls start finding gloves. The problem is what it comes down to. His luck-free expected ERA is 9.28 against a league average of 4.10, so once the noise clears he still is not a good pitcher. He also strikes out just 17.9% of batters, below the 22.0% league average. His swinging-strike rate (13.3%) and fastball velocity (94.9 mph) are both a touch above league, which keeps the panic in perspective, but neither is enough to make him a buy. Limited data here: this call rests on the first stable sample of the season. Hold.

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.413 elevated and unstable — the 16.34 ERA overstates the damage
  • xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 9.28 is +5.18 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.5%
38.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
52 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed13.5%
13.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.5%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
52 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.438
.438*
lg avg .315 ▲+.123vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
78 / 200 TBF
xERA9.28
9.28*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+5.18vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
78 / 200 TBF
ERA16.34
16.34*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+12.24vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
12.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.9%
17.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.1%vs his norm —
78 / 70 TBF
Walk %14.1%
14.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.1%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
78 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.413
.413*
lg avg .295 ▲+.118vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
52 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.3%
13.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —
78 / 60 TBF
Chase %26.4%
26.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.1%vs his norm —
78 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.9 mph
94.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.9 mphvs his norm —
294 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.9%→19.1%signal0 K — K% 17.9% (signal) lifted to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 19.1% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 9.28noise3.70 ERA — xERA 9.28 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 2 IP.
BB% 14.1% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 14% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.303 gives a 1.74 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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