week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Jack Dreyer
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.09); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 21ERA 3.69WHIP 1.24W 1–3SV 0
Dreyer is a hold — league average with weak data.
ROS projects K 24 YTD → 21 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %28.9%—+4.2% ▲vs his ~24.8% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.09)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
97 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
97 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.275
lg avg .315 ▼−.040vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
152 / 200 TBF
xERA3.09
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.01vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
152 / 200 TBF
ERA3.03
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.07vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
38.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.9%vs his norm +4.2% ▲
152 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm −1.0% ▼Walk % is below his ~7.6% norm — expect it to rise.
152 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.247
lg avg .295 ▼−.048vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
97 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
152 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.3%vs his norm —
152 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.2 mphvs his norm —
596 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 28.9%→26.5%signal21 K — K% 28.9% (signal) tempered to career ~24.8% → projected 26.5% over ~21 remaining…
xERA 3.09noise3.69 ERA — xERA 3.09 (noise) blended 2% skill / 98% league 3.70 at 23 IP.
BB% 6.6% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.289 gives a 1.14 skill WHIP, blended 2%…
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.69 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.