MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekBUY

Jack Dreyer

LAD·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Buy stable xERA 3.22, 0.88 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.86
ROSK 5ERA 3.22WHIP 1.22W 0–1SV 0

Dreyer is a buy — the skill is stable and nothing is propping it up

His expected ERA is 3.22 — .88 below the league average of 4.10 — and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. Nothing unstable is holding it down. He allows a .279 expected wOBA against a league average of .315, strikes out 29.4% of batters, and gets swinging strikes on 13.8% of pitches, all well above league. His fastball sits at 94.1 mph and has been stepping up across the sample, and the expected ERA has been stepping down. His walk rate is 8.7%, essentially league average, so there is no command problem waiting to surface. The stuff is real, the contact suppression is real, and the sample supports both. Buy. A 3.22 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over 5 K makes him a deep-league asset worth adding now.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %29.4%—+4.7% ▲vs his ~24.8% career norm
  • Walk %8.7%—+1.1% ▲vs his ~7.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.22, 0.88 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.3%
42.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —
142 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.0%
7.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
142 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.279
.279*
lg avg .315 ▼−.036vs his norm —
231 / 200 TBF
xERA3.22
3.22*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.88vs his norm —
231 / 200 TBF
ERA2.98
2.98*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.12vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
57.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %29.4%
norm29.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.4%vs his norm +4.7% ▲
231 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.7%
norm8.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm +1.1% ▲
231 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.265
.265*
lg avg .295 ▼−.030vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
142 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.8%
13.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm —
231 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.1%
32.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.6%vs his norm —
231 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.1 mph
94.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.1 mphvs his norm —
925 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 29.4%→27.2%signal5 K — K% 29.4% (signal) tempered to career ~24.8% → projected 27.2% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 3.22signal3.22 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.22 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 8.7% + contactsignal1.22 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.22 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.22 ERA, 1.22 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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