MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Jonathan Pintaro

NYM·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell High BABIP-against 0.230 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 4.06 is 0.39 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.71
ROSK 5ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Pintaro is a sell-high — his ERA is built on BABIP luck.

His BABIP-against is .230, 65 points below the league average of .295, and that number is carrying his ERA. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 67 — so the outs are falling his way, not because he is missing bats at an elite rate. His expected ERA is 4.06, roughly four-tenths higher than the 3.67 on the scoreboard, and that gap is the regression waiting to happen. The skill metrics are ordinary: a 24.1% strikeout rate, 6.0% barrels allowed, a 95.8 mph fastball. Nothing here suggests he can sustain a sub-3.70 ERA once the batted balls regress. Limited data on this call — the first stable sample of his season. Sell high. 5 K, 3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP is deep-league hold value only — sell into this inflated line before the drag hits.

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.230 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.06 is 0.39 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.8%
38.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
67 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.0%
6.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm —
67 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.311
.311*
lg avg .315 ▼−.004vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
108 / 200 TBF
xERA4.06
4.06*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.04vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
108 / 200 TBF
ERA3.67
3.67*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.43vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
27 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.1%
24.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
108 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.0%
12.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.0%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
108 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.230
.230*
lg avg .295 ▼−.065vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
67 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.6%
11.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm —
108 / 60 TBF
Chase %26.6%
26.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —
108 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.8 mph
95.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.8 mphvs his norm —
433 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.1%→24.1%signal5 K — K% 24.1% (signal) tempered to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 24.1% over ~6 remaining IP.
xERA 4.06noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.06 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 7 IP.
BB% 12.0% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.46 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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