week 10
this weekSELL
last weekSELL
————————
Matthew Liberatore
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Liberatore is a sell — his skill is below league with no luck excuse.
His xERA has climbed to 5.20, a full 1.10 runs above the league average, and he has faced 268 batters, enough to trust the number. His actual ERA is 5.18, almost identical, so there is no luck story pulling the line down. His BABIP against is near league average. The metrics behind the ERA are uniformly poor: he allows hard contact (44.7% hard-hit rate, nearly five points above league) and barrels (9.6% barrel rate, well above league), while his strikeout and walk rates are both around the league mean. That means he does not miss enough bats to compensate for the contact he gives up. This is not a slump; it is the level he is at, and it has been getting worse. Sell.
Sell
high0.88
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.20 +1.10 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL188 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.6%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL188 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.355
lg avg .315 ▲+.040trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL268 / 200 TBF
xERA5.20
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.10trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL268 / 200 TBF
ERA4.36
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.26too early to trust
NOISE62 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL268 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.6%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL268 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.339
lg avg .295 ▲+.044too early to trust
NOISE188 / 800 BIP