week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL
Matthew Liberatore
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from SELL on September 10, 2026
Hold · leans sell but luck-free xERA 4.85 is +0.75 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy — BABIP-against 0.339 elevated and unstable, the 5.57 ERA overstates the damage; a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 11ERA 4.59WHIP 1.37W 0–1SV 0
Liberatore is a hold — the ERA is bad luck, the skill is short.
ROS projects K 57 YTD → 11 ROS, ERA 4.35 YTD → 4.59 ROS, WHIP 1.50 YTD → 1.37 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %23.7%—+4.5% ▲vs his ~19.2% career norm
- Walk %8.1%—+0.3% ▲vs his ~7.8% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.339 elevated and unstable — the 5.57 ERA overstates the damage
- xeraSIGNALbut luck-free xERA 4.85 is +0.75 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
410 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
410 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.337
lg avg .315 ▲+.022vs his norm —
608 / 200 TBF
xERA4.85
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.75vs his norm —
608 / 200 TBF
ERA5.57
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.47vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
139 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm +4.5% ▲
608 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm +0.3% ▲
608 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.339
lg avg .295 ▲+.044vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
410 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
608 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
608 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.4 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.4 mphvs his norm —
2376 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.7%→22.6%signal11 K — K% 23.7% (signal) tempered to career ~19.2% → projected 22.6% over ~13 remaining…
xERA 4.85signal4.59 ERA — xERA 4.85 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 62 IP.
BB% 8.1% + contactsignal1.37 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.318 gives a 1.41 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop11 K ROS, 4.59 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.