MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Matthew Liberatore
week 31
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Matthew Liberatore

STL·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell stable xERA 5.02 +0.92 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.83
ROSK 0ERA 4.70WHIP 1.39W 0–0SV 0

Liberatore is a sell — the contact allowed is real and trending worse

His expected ERA is 5.02, a full run above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. There is no luck story to explain it away. He strikes out 22.8% of hitters and walks 8.2%, both right at league average, so the profile is not hiding a missing skill. The contact allowed is the problem: a .341 expected wOBA allowed against a .315 league average, with a 42.4% hard-hit rate allowed and 9.3% barrels allowed. Worse, his xERA has been moving the wrong way across the sample, getting higher as the season goes on. That is a pitcher trending in the wrong direction, not one due for a correction. Sell. A 0 K / 4.70 ERA / 1.39 WHIP arm is pure waiver fodder — fade the 0-0 W, 0 SV and stream elsewhere.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %22.8%—+3.6% ▲vs his ~19.2% career norm
  • Walk %8.2%—+0.4% ▲vs his ~7.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.02 +0.92 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.4%
42.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm —
460 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.3%
9.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
460 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.341
.341*
lg avg .315 ▲+.026vs his norm —
674 / 200 TBF
xERA5.02
5.02*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.92vs his norm —
674 / 200 TBF
ERA5.23
5.23*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.13vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
155 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.8%
norm22.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm +3.6% ▲
674 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.2%
norm8.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm +0.4% ▲
674 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.336
.336*
lg avg .295 ▲+.041vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
460 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.0%
11.0%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.0%vs his norm —
674 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.6%
28.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
674 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.3 mph
94.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.3 mphvs his norm —
2610 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.8%→22.0%signal0 K — K% 22.8% (signal) tempered to career ~19.2% → projected 22.0% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.02signal4.70 ERA — xERA 5.02 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 62 IP.
BB% 8.2% + contactsignal1.39 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.319 gives a 1.43 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.70 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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