MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
week 27
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW

Jordan Hicks

CWS·P
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Buy Low luck-free xERA 2.94 sits 1.16 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — BABIP-against 0.327 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.90
ROSK 0ERA 2.94WHIP 1.45W 0–0SV 0–0

Hicks is a buy-low — the ERA is hiding a real arm.

His ERA is 4.02, but the number behind it is 2.94 — an expected ERA 1.16 runs below league average, and he has faced enough batters for that to be reliable. The stat bloating his ERA is BABIP-against: .327 against a league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be trustworthy and he has 117, so that gap is luck, not a flaw in his pitching. The contact suppression is real too — 33.3% hard-hit allowed against a 40% league mark and a barrel rate of 1.7% — and his fastball is sitting at 99.3 mph, with his expected ERA stepping down across the sample as the velocity steps up. The skill is there; the surface line has not caught up. Buy low. The 2.94 ERA / 1.45 WHIP rest-of-season line is a deep-league streamer's buy-low, not a roster-anywhere asset.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %29.1%—+7.0% ▲vs his ~22.1% career norm
  • Walk %15.5%—+3.6% ▲vs his ~11.9% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 2.94 sits 1.16 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.327 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.3%
33.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.7%vs his norm —
117 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed1.7%
1.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.3%vs his norm —
117 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.266
.266*
lg avg .315 ▼−.049vs his norm —
213 / 200 TBF
xERA2.94
2.94*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.16vs his norm —
213 / 200 TBF
ERA4.02
4.02*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.08vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
47 / 200 IP
Strikeout %29.1%
norm29.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.1%vs his norm +7.0% ▲
213 / 70 TBF
Walk %15.5%
norm15.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+7.5%vs his norm +3.6% ▲
213 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.327
.327*
lg avg .295 ▲+.032vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
117 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.4%
12.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —
213 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.2%
30.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
213 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo99.3 mph
99.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+5.3 mphvs his norm —
870 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 29.1%→25.7%signal0 K — K% 29.1% (signal) tempered to career ~22.1% → projected 25.7% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 2.94signal2.94 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.94 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 15.5% + contactsignal1.45 WHIP — a 16% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.300 gives a 1.56 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-0 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep2.94 ERA, 1.45 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups