week 18
this weekHOLD
last weekBUY-LOW
Jordan Hicks
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
flipped from BUY-LOW on July 28, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.14); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 13ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0–2
Hicks is a hold — limited data, near-league skill metrics.
ROS projects K 15 YTD → 13 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %25.6%—+3.5% ▲vs his ~22.1% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.14)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed29.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−10.7%vs his norm —
75 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed1.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.7%vs his norm —
75 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.276
lg avg .315 ▼−.039vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
129 / 200 TBF
xERA3.14
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.96vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
129 / 200 TBF
ERA3.38
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.72vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
29.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.6%vs his norm +3.5% ▲
129 / 70 TBF
Walk %15.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+7.5%vs his norm +3.6% ▲Walk % is above his ~11.9% norm — expect it to fall.
129 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.297
lg avg .295 ▲+.002vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
75 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
129 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
129 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo99.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+5.2 mphvs his norm —
505 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.6%→23.4%signal13 K — K% 25.6% (signal) tempered to career ~22.1% → projected 23.4% over ~16 remaining…
xERA 3.14noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.14 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 18 IP.
BB% 15.5% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 16% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.295 gives a 1.61 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-2 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.