week 12
this weekHOLD
last week—
Jordan Hicks
data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Hold · wait & see BABIP-against 0.358 elevated and unstable, the 5.60 ERA overstates the damage; but luck-free xERA 4.46 is +0.36 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.55 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 32ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 1–3
Hicks is a hold — the ERA is ugly but trustable as below-average.
ROS projects K 15 YTD → 32 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %17.2%—−4.8% ▼vs his ~22.1% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.358 elevated and unstable — the 5.60 ERA overstates the damage
- xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 4.46 is +0.36 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.8%vs his norm —
54 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed1.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.1%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
54 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.330
lg avg .315 ▲+.015vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
87 / 200 TBF
xERA4.46
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.36vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
87 / 200 TBF
ERA5.60
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.50vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
17.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.8%vs his norm −4.8% ▼
87 / 70 TBF
Walk %19.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+11.5%vs his norm +7.6% ▲Walk % is above his ~11.9% norm — expect it to fall.
87 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.358
lg avg .295 ▲+.063vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
54 / 800 BIP
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.2%→20.6%signal32 K — K% 17.2% (signal) lifted to career ~22.1% → projected 20.6% over ~32 remaining IP.
xERA 4.46noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.46 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 18 IP.
BB% 19.5% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 20% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 2.03 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)1-3 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.