week 27
this weekHOLD
last week—
Elmer Rodríguez
data as of September 30, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (5.58); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 4.10WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0
Rodriguez is a hold — the profile is league average across the board.
ROS projects K 10 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.58)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.4%vs his norm —
82 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
82 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.357
lg avg .315 ▲+.042vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
125 / 200 TBF
xERA5.58
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.48vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
125 / 200 TBF
ERA5.40
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.30vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
26.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %16.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.2%vs his norm —
125 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.8%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
125 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.300
lg avg .295 ▲+.005vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
82 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
125 / 60 TBF
Chase %24.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−4.3%vs his norm —
125 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.4 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.4 mphvs his norm —
497 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 16.8%→17.8%signal0 K — K% 16.8% (signal) lifted to SP mean ~22.0% → projected 17.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.58noise4.10 ERA — xERA 5.58 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 4.10 at 17 IP.
BB% 12.8% + contactnoise1.30 WHIP — a 13% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.295 gives a 1.66 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.10 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.