week 17
this weekHOLD
last week—
Elmer Rodríguez
data as of July 20, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 12% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — skill near league average (5.88); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 29ERA 4.10WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0
Rodriguez is a hold — league average stuff, limited ceiling.
ROS projects K 10 YTD → 29 ROS, ERA 4.76 YTD → 4.10 ROS, WHIP 1.76 YTD → 1.30 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.88)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 12% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.5%vs his norm —
58 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.8%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
58 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.367
lg avg .315 ▲+.052vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
83 / 200 TBF
xERA5.88
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.78vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
83 / 200 TBF
ERA4.76
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.66vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
17 / 200 IP
Strikeout %12.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−10.0%vs his norm —
83 / 70 TBF
Walk %13.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.3%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
83 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.316
lg avg .295 ▲+.021vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
58 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
83 / 60 TBF
Chase %22.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−6.3%vs his norm —
83 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.2 mphvs his norm —
318 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 12.0%→14.0%signal29 K — K% 12.0% (signal) lifted to SP mean ~22.0% → projected 14.0% over ~42 remaining IP.
xERA 5.88noise4.10 ERA — xERA 5.88 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 4.10 at 17 IP.
BB% 13.3% + contactnoise1.30 WHIP — a 13% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.80 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop29 K ROS, 4.10 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.