MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Andrew Morris
week 25
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW

Andrew Morris

MIN·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Buy Low luck-free xERA 3.13 sits 0.97 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — BABIP-against 0.321 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.88
ROSK 5ERA 3.13WHIP 1.34W 0–0SV 0–0

Morris is a buy-low — the BABIP is hiding a real arm.

His ERA reads 4.07, but the contact quality under it says the ERA is not the truth. His BABIP-against is .321 against a league average of .295, and that gap is luck — BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable and he has 201. Strip the bounces out and his expected ERA is 3.13, close to a full run below league average. He is not doing it with soft contact either: he holds hitters to a 33.3% hard-hit rate and 3.5% barrels, both well below league, and his xwOBA allowed of .275 undercuts the .315 league mark. His fastball is averaging 97.3 mph, and both that velocity and his expected ERA have been trending the right direction across the sample. The arm is real; the surface is noise. Buy low. Deep-league only, but 5 K and a 3.13 ERA at this price is a buy-low window, not a drag.

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.13 sits 0.97 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.321 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.3%
33.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.7%vs his norm —
201 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.5%
3.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.5%vs his norm —
201 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.275
believable since Jul 23.275*
lg avg .315 ▼−.040vs his norm —
289 / 200 TBF
xERA3.13
3.13*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.97vs his norm —
289 / 200 TBF
ERA4.07
4.07*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.03vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
66.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.1%
21.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
289 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.3%
8.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
289 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.321
.321*
lg avg .295 ▲+.026vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
201 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.0%
11.0%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.0%vs his norm —
289 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.6%
27.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
289 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.3 mph
97.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.3 mphvs his norm —
1151 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.1%→21.7%signal5 K — K% 21.1% (signal) lifted to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 21.7% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 3.13signal3.13 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.13 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 8.3% + contactsignal1.34 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.301 gives a 1.40 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-0 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.13 ERA, 1.34 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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