MLB Daily DeltaWeek 10 · June 3, 2026
Engraved portrait of Andrew Morris
week 10
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW
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Andrew Morris

MIN·P
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10

Morris is a buy-low — ERA hides real skill.

His ERA is 4.18, but the box score is lying. The culprit is a .347 BABIP-against, 52 points above the .295 league average. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to stabilize, and he has only 77 — that gap is pure noise. Strip out that bad luck and his expected ERA drops to 3.33, nearly a full run lower. He is suppressing hard contact well: his 32.5% hard-hit rate allowed is well below the 40.0% league average, and his 2.6% barrel rate is a third of the 8.0% league average. Both are past their stabilization thresholds. He strikes out 18.9% of batters, close to league average. The data is limited early in the season, so the call rests on first stable samples, but the evidence points to a pitcher whose surface line is worse than his skill. Buy low.

Buy Low
high0.85

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.347 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed32.5%
32.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.5%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL77 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed2.6%
2.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−5.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL77 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.290
.290
lg avg .315 ▼−.025too early to trust
NOISE106 / 200 TBF
xERA3.33
3.33
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.77too early to trust
NOISE106 / 200 TBF
ERA4.18
4.18
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.08too early to trust
NOISE23.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.9%
18.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL106 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.5%
8.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.5%too early to trust
NOISE106 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.347
.347
lg avg .295 ▲+.052too early to trust
NOISE77 / 800 BIP