MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Andrew Morris
week 17
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW

Andrew Morris

MIN·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 2.93 sits 1.17 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.331 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.med 0.72
ROSK 20WHIP 1.24ERA 3.67W 1–2SV 0–2

Morris is a buy-low — ERA masks a real arm.

His fastball velocity is 96.8 mph — nearly 3 mph above league — and the number is stable. A heater that lives there generates whiffs and weak contact, and the batted-ball data confirms it: opponents barrel the ball just 3.1% of the time (league 8.0%) and hard-hit at 33.1% (league 40.0%), both past the stabilization point of 50 batted ball events. His expected ERA sits at 2.93 — 1.17 runs below the league average. The surface ERA of 3.33 is already a touch worse, but the real drag is his .331 BABIP-against, which needs 800 balls in play to stabilize (he has 130). That 36-point elevation over .295 is raw luck. The underlying skill is a strikeout-and-ground-ball arm with a plus fastball who is outpitching his own box score. The arm is fine. Buy low. 20 K and a 3.67 ERA with 1.24 WHIP give you a deep-league asset; chase the skill, not the BABIP.

Drivers

  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.93 sits 1.17 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.331 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.1%
33.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.9%vs his norm —
130 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.1%
3.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.9%vs his norm —
130 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.268
.268*
lg avg .315 ▼−.047vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
194 / 200 TBF
xERA2.93
2.93*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.17vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
194 / 200 TBF
ERA3.33
3.33*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.77vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
46 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.7%
24.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.7%vs his norm —
194 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.2%
believable since Jul 27.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
194 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.331
.331*
lg avg .295 ▲+.036vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
130 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.1%
11.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
194 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.5%
27.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
194 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.8 mph
96.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.8 mphvs his norm —
792 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.7%→24.6%signal20 K — K% 24.7% (signal) tempered to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 24.6% over ~24 remainin…
xERA 2.93noise3.67 ERA — xERA 2.93 (noise) blended 3% skill / 97% league 3.70 at 24 IP.
BB% 7.2% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.301 gives a 1.28 skill WHIP, blended 3%…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-2 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.67 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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