MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Andrew Morris
week 31
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW

Andrew Morris

MIN·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Buy Low luck-free xERA 3.35 sits 0.75 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — BABIP-against 0.319 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.90
ROSK 0ERA 3.35WHIP 1.34W 0–0SV 0–0

Morris is a buy-low — his ERA is hiding a real arm.

His ERA is 4.4, and the number inflating it is his BABIP-against: .319, 24 points above the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable and he has 222, so that gap is luck rather than a read on his pitching. Strip the noise out and his expected ERA is 3.35, three-quarters of a run below the league average of 4.1. The contact allowed backs it up: a .283 expected wOBA allowed against a .315 league mark, a 34.7% hard-hit rate allowed well under the 40% league figure, and a 4.5% barrel rate against 8%. His fastball is sitting at 97.4 mph and has been climbing across the sample, so the arm is not the question. The results will catch up to the stuff. Buy low. A 3.35 ERA and 1.34 WHIP rest of season make the buy-low a deep-league asset, not a stash you can sit on.

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.35 sits 0.75 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.319 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.7%
34.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.3%vs his norm —
222 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.5%
4.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm —
222 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.283
believable since Jul 23.283*
lg avg .315 ▼−.032vs his norm —
321 / 200 TBF
xERA3.35
3.35*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.75vs his norm —
321 / 200 TBF
ERA4.40
4.40*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.30vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
73.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.5%
21.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
321 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.4%
8.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
321 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.319
.319*
lg avg .295 ▲+.024vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
222 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.2%
11.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
321 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.1%
28.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
321 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.4 mph
97.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.4 mphvs his norm —
1295 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.5%→22.0%signal0 K — K% 21.5% (signal) lifted to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 22.0% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.35signal3.35 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.35 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 8.4% + contactsignal1.34 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.302 gives a 1.39 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-0 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.35 ERA, 1.34 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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