week 18
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Jordan Leasure
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Sell High BABIP-against 0.196 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 7.53 is 1.26 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 18ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 1–3SV 0
Leasure is a sell-high — luck inflates his ERA.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %23.1%—−2.5% ▼vs his ~25.6% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.196 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 7.53 is 1.26 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.2%vs his norm —
52 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed25.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+17.0%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
52 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.406
lg avg .315 ▲+.091vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
78 / 200 TBF
xERA7.53
lg avg 4.10 ▲+3.43vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
78 / 200 TBF
ERA6.27
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.17vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
18.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm −2.5% ▼
78 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm −1.1% ▼Walk % is below his ~11.4% norm — expect it to rise.
78 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.196
lg avg .295 ▼−.099vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
52 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.7%vs his norm —
78 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.6%vs his norm —
78 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.8 mphvs his norm —
313 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.1%→24.9%signal18 K — K% 23.1% (signal) lifted to career ~25.6% → projected 24.9% over ~17 remaining IP.
xERA 7.53noise3.70 ERA — xERA 7.53 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 19 IP.
BB% 10.3% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.289 gives a 1.39 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.