MLB Daily DeltaWeek 12 · June 13, 2026
Engraved portrait of Jordan Leasure
week 12
this weekSELL-HIGH
last week—

Jordan Leasure

CWS·P
data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Sell High BABIP-against 0.196 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 7.29 is 1.02 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 35ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 2–5SV 0

Leasure is a sell-high — ERA is built on noise.

His ERA sits at 6.27, which looks like a passable mid-relief number, but the foundation is not stable. The gap between his actual ERA and his expected ERA is 1.02 runs, and the number driving it is his BABIP-against: .196, 99 points below league average. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 52. That is luck, not skill. His expected ERA is 7.29 — a full run above his actual line and well above the 4.10 league average. He does strike out 23.1% of batters, almost league average, but batters are creating loud contact: a 44.2% hard-hit rate allowed, above the 40% league mark, and that number has cleared its stabilization threshold. The contact suppression is not there, the BABIP will normalize, and the ERA will balloon. This is a limited-sample call: the reliable metrics point to a pitcher performing below his surface line. Sell high. 35 K and a 3.70 ERA projection cap his ceiling; deep-league only, not a trade asset.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %23.1%—−2.5% ▼vs his ~25.6% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.196 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 7.29 is 1.02 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.2%
44.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.2%vs his norm —
52 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed25.0%
25.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+17.0%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
52 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.406
.406*
lg avg .315 ▲+.091vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
78 / 200 TBF
xERA7.29
7.29*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+3.19vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
78 / 200 TBF
ERA6.27
6.27*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.17vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
18.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.1%
norm23.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm −2.5% ▼
78 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.3%
norm10.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm −1.1% ▼Walk % is below his ~11.4% norm — expect it to rise.
78 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.196
.196*
lg avg .295 ▼−.099vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
52 / 800 BIP

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.1%→24.9%signal35 K — K% 23.1% (signal) lifted to career ~25.6% → projected 24.9% over ~33 remaining IP.
xERA 7.29noise3.70 ERA — xERA 7.29 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 19 IP.
BB% 10.3% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.289 gives a 1.39 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role2-5 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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