week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Justin Wrobleski
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Wrobleski is a sell-high — his ERA is running on luck.
His xERA is 3.84, but his ERA sits at 2.87 — a nearly one-run gap that has luck written all over it. The driver is a BABIP-against of .237, 58 points below the league average of .295, and BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 194. That suppressed BABIP is flattering his ERA, and it will not hold. His strikeout rate is 16% — well below the league average of 22% — and has been stepping down across the sample, limiting his ceiling even if the BABIP normalizes to something merely unlucky. The xERA says a 3.84 pitcher is what he is; the ERA says he is better than that, but the ERA is not the truth. Sell high.
Sell High
high0.95
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.237 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.84 is 0.97 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL194 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL194 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.310
lg avg .315 ▼−.005trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL250 / 200 TBF
xERA3.84
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.26trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL250 / 200 TBF
ERA2.87
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.23too early to trust
NOISE62.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %16.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.0%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL250 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL250 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.237
lg avg .295 ▼−.058too early to trust
NOISE194 / 800 BIP