MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Justin Wrobleski
week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Justin Wrobleski

LAD·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell High luck-free xERA 4.10 is 1.41 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.251 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 40ERA 4.10WHIP 1.20W 4–9SV 0

Wrobleski is a sell-high — ERA built on BABIP luck.

Limited data, but the gap is hard to ignore. His ERA is 2.69, but his expected ERA is 4.10, pointing directly at regression. The reason: his BABIP-against is .251, well below the league average of .295, and that number is pure noise at 303 balls in play. BABIP-against needs around 800 to be reliable. Strip the luck and his xwOBA allowed is right at league average, his strikeout rate is below league, and his hard-hit rate is above league. The surface looks good, but the skill set is ordinary. Sell high. 40 K and a 4.10 ERA projection make a deep-league only asset — sell now before the inevitable regression.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %18.3%—−2.5% ▼vs his ~20.8% career norm
  • Walk %5.0%—−1.9% ▼vs his ~6.9% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.251 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.10 is 1.41 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.9%
42.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —
303 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.6%
7.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
303 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.314
.314*
lg avg .315 ▼−.001vs his norm —
399 / 200 TBF
xERA4.10
4.10*
lg avg 4.10 0.00vs his norm —
399 / 200 TBF
ERA2.69
2.69*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.41vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
100.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.3%
norm18.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.7%vs his norm −2.5% ▼
399 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.0%
norm5.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.0%vs his norm −1.9% ▼
399 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.251
.251*
lg avg .295 ▼−.044vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
303 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.9%
9.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
399 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.5%
32.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.0%vs his norm —
399 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.3 mph
94.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.3 mphvs his norm —
1435 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.3%→19.1%signal40 K — K% 18.3% (signal) lifted to career ~20.8% → projected 19.1% over ~59 remaining IP.
xERA 4.10signal4.10 ERA — xERA 4.10 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 63 IP.
BB% 5.0% + contactsignal1.20 WHIP — a 5% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.278 gives a 1.20 skill WHIP.
run support + role4-9 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep40 K ROS, 4.10 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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