MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Justin Wrobleski
week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Justin Wrobleski

LAD·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell High luck-free xERA 4.72 is 0.88 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.266 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 9ERA 4.50WHIP 1.20W 1–2SV 0

Wrobleski is a sell-high — the ERA is hiding a shakier pitcher.

His ERA is 3.84, but his BABIP-against is .266 against a league average of .295. That suppressed number is doing the heavy lifting, and it is not reliable yet — BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to stabilize and he has 398. Strip out the luck and his expected ERA is 4.72, nearly a full run above what the box score shows, and that xERA has been stepping up across the sample. The rest of the profile agrees: he allows a .333 xwOBA against a .315 league average, his hard-hit rate allowed is 43.7%, and his barrel rate allowed is 9.8%. He strikes out 20.3% of batters, below league average, and he does not miss bats — his swinging-strike rate is 10.2%. The ERA is flattering the stuff. Sell high. 9 K and a 4.50 ERA ROS is a deep-league streamer at best — sell into the inflated line before regression.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %5.5%—−1.4% ▼vs his ~6.9% career norm
  • Strikeout %20.3%—−0.5% ▼vs his ~20.8% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.266 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.72 is 0.88 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed43.7%
43.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.7%vs his norm —
398 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.8%
9.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm —
398 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.333
.333*
lg avg .315 ▲+.018vs his norm —
543 / 200 TBF
xERA4.72
4.72*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.62vs his norm —
543 / 200 TBF
ERA3.84
3.84*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.26vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
131.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.3%
norm20.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm −0.5% ▼
543 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.5%
norm5.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm −1.4% ▼
543 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.266
.266*
lg avg .295 ▼−.029vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
398 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.2%
10.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
543 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.8%
31.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.3%vs his norm —
543 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.6 mph
94.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.6 mphvs his norm —
2009 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.3%→20.4%signal9 K — K% 20.3% (signal) held to career ~20.8% → projected 20.4% over ~13 remaining IP.
xERA 4.72signal4.50 ERA — xERA 4.72 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 63 IP.
BB% 5.5% + contactsignal1.20 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.281 gives a 1.20 skill WHIP.
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep9 K ROS, 4.50 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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