MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 28, 2026
week 27
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD

Kris Bubic

LAD·P
data as of September 28, 2026·week 27
flipped from HOLD on September 28, 2026
Sell High luck-free xERA 4.21 is 0.45 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.261 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.83
ROSK 0ERA 4.17WHIP 1.38W 0–0SV 0

Bubic is a sell-high — his ERA is running on luck.

The number holding his ERA down is his BABIP-against: .261, against a league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable and he has 142, so that gap is luck, not skill. Strip it out and his expected ERA is 4.21 — .45 above the 3.76 the scoreboard shows, and that expected ERA has been stepping up across the sample. The rest of the profile backs the regression: his expected wOBA allowed is .315, exactly league average, not a run-suppressing mark. He walks 11.5% of batters, well above the 8% league average, and he averages 91.9 mph on his fastball — three mph below league. There is no dominant pitch keeping the ERA low. Sell high. 0 K and a 4.17 ERA ROS makes him a drop, so take the trade window before regression drags him to waiver status.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %24.8%—+2.7% ▲vs his ~22.1% career norm
  • Walk %11.5%—+1.8% ▲vs his ~9.7% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.261 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.21 is 0.45 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.7%
38.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
142 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.0%
7.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
142 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.315
.315*
lg avg .315 .000vs his norm —
226 / 200 TBF
xERA4.21
4.21*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.11vs his norm —
226 / 200 TBF
ERA3.76
3.76*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.34vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
55 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.8%
norm24.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm +2.7% ▲
226 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.5%
norm11.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm +1.8% ▲
226 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.261
.261*
lg avg .295 ▼−.034vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
142 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.5%
12.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
226 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.8%
29.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
226 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.9 mph
91.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.1 mphvs his norm —
882 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.8%→23.5%signal0 K — K% 24.8% (signal) tempered to career ~22.1% → projected 23.5% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.21signal4.17 ERA — xERA 4.21 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 50 IP.
BB% 11.5% + contactsignal1.38 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.289 gives a 1.42 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.17 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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