week 18
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Kris Bubic
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Sell High luck-free xERA 4.51 is 0.40 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.256 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.81 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 45ERA 4.37WHIP 1.41W 2–4SV 0
Bubic is a sell-high — his ERA is luck, not skill.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Walk %12.6%—+2.9% ▲vs his ~9.7% career norm
- Strikeout %24.6%—+2.5% ▲vs his ~22.1% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.256 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.51 is 0.40 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
129 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
129 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.327
lg avg .315 ▲+.012vs his norm —
207 / 200 TBF
xERA4.51
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.41vs his norm —
207 / 200 TBF
ERA4.11
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.01vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
50.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.6%vs his norm +2.5% ▲
207 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.6%vs his norm +2.9% ▲
207 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.256
lg avg .295 ▼−.039vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
129 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
207 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
207 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.2 mphvs his norm —
811 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.6%→23.4%signal45 K — K% 24.6% (signal) tempered to career ~22.1% → projected 23.4% over ~46 remaining…
xERA 4.51signal4.37 ERA — xERA 4.51 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 50 IP.
BB% 12.6% + contactsignal1.41 WHIP — a 13% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.289 gives a 1.47 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role2-4 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop45 K ROS, 4.37 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.