MLB Daily DeltaWeek 12 · June 13, 2026
week 12
this weekSELL
last week

Kris Bubic

KC·P
data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Sell stable xERA 4.40 +0.30 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.64 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 86ERA 4.29WHIP 1.41W 3–7SV 0

Bubic is a sell — skill below league, no luck excuse.

Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %12.6%+2.9%vs his ~9.7% career norm
  • Strikeout %24.6%+2.5%vs his ~22.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.40 +0.30 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.5%
39.5%*
lg avg 40.0% −0.5%vs his norm —
129 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.8%
7.8%*
lg avg 8.0% −0.2%vs his norm —
129 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.328
.328*
lg avg .315 +.013vs his norm —
207 / 200 TBF
xERA4.40
4.40*
lg avg 4.10 +0.30vs his norm —
207 / 200 TBF
ERA4.11
4.11*
lg avg 4.10 +0.01vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league averageexpect it to fall.
50.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.6%
norm24.6%*
lg avg 22.0% +2.6%vs his norm +2.5%
207 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.6%
norm12.6%*
lg avg 8.0% +4.6%vs his norm +2.9%
207 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.256
.256*
lg avg .295 −.039vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league averageexpect it to rise.
129 / 800 BIP

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.6%→23.4%signal86 K — K% 24.6% (signal) tempered to career ~22.1% → projected 23.4% over ~90 remaining…
xERA 4.40signal4.29 ERA — xERA 4.40 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 50 IP.
BB% 12.6% + contactsignal1.41 WHIP — a 13% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.289 gives a 1.47 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role3-7 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep86 K ROS, 4.29 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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