week 27
this weekHOLD
last week—
Mitch Bratt
data as of September 30, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — skill near league average (4.12); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0WHIP 1.30ERA 4.10W 0–0SV 0
Bratt is a hold — league-average skill, no luck driving the line.
ROS projects K 3 YTD → 0 ROS, WHIP 1.67 YTD → 1.30 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.12)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.2%vs his norm —
136 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
136 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.312
lg avg .315 ▼−.003vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
194 / 200 TBF
xERA4.12
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.02vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
194 / 200 TBF
ERA4.71
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.61vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
44 / 200 IP
Strikeout %15.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.5%vs his norm —
194 / 70 TBF
Walk %13.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.9%vs his norm —
194 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.271
lg avg .295 ▼−.024vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
136 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %7.0%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−4.0%vs his norm —
194 / 60 TBF
Chase %25.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−3.2%vs his norm —
194 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.0 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−3.0 mphvs his norm —
726 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 15.5%→16.8%signal0 K — K% 15.5% (signal) lifted to SP mean ~22.0% → projected 16.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.12noise4.10 ERA — xERA 4.12 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 4.10 at 6 IP.
BB% 13.9% + contactsignal1.30 WHIP — a 14% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.291 gives a 1.72 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.10 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.