week 18
this weekSELL
last weekSELL-HIGH
Noah Schultz
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
flipped from SELL-HIGH on July 28, 2026
Sell stable xERA 6.03 +1.93 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.90 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 36ERA 5.35WHIP 1.45W 1–3SV 0
Schultz is a sell — his skill metrics are below league and stable.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Walk %11.5%—−1.6% ▼vs his ~13.1% career norm
- Strikeout %19.4%—−0.2% ▼vs his ~19.6% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 6.03 +1.93 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
169 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.7%vs his norm —
169 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.371
lg avg .315 ▲+.056vs his norm —
253 / 200 TBF
xERA6.03
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.93vs his norm —
253 / 200 TBF
ERA6.04
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.94vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
56.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm −0.2% ▼
253 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm −1.6% ▼
253 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.287
lg avg .295 ▼−.008vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
169 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.0%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm —
253 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
253 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.2 mphvs his norm —
985 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.4%→19.5%signal36 K — K% 19.4% (signal) held to career ~19.6% → projected 19.5% over ~42 remaining IP.
xERA 6.03signal5.35 ERA — xERA 6.03 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 39 IP.
BB% 11.5% + contactsignal1.45 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.293 gives a 1.54 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop36 K ROS, 5.35 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.