MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Max Scherzer

TOR·P
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (4.35); a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 4.26WHIP 1.40W 0–0SV 0

Scherzer is a hold — league-average skill, and the trend is drifting the wrong way.

His expected ERA is 4.35, essentially league average, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. Nothing in his profile is being propped up or dragged down by luck. The data shows contact allowed that is slightly better than league: a 33.8% hard-hit rate against 40%, though his barrel rate of 8.8% is a hair above the 8.0% league mark. What stands out is the direction. His xERA has stepped up across the sample, and the under-the-hood rates say the same thing. He strikes out 18.1% of batters, below the 22% league average, and walks 10.1% against 8%. That combination is not a collapse but it is not a buy either. The skill has settled around average. This is who he is right now. Hold.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %18.1%—−10.9% ▼vs his ~29.0% career norm
  • Walk %10.1%—+3.6% ▲vs his ~6.5% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.35)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.8%
33.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.2%vs his norm —
240 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.8%
8.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
240 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.320
.320*
lg avg .315 ▲+.005vs his norm —
337 / 200 TBF
xERA4.35
4.35*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.25vs his norm —
337 / 200 TBF
ERA6.14
6.14*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.04vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
77.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.1%
norm18.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.9%vs his norm −10.9% ▼
337 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.1%
norm10.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm +3.6% ▲
337 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.254
.254*
lg avg .295 ▼−.041vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
240 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.1%
10.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
337 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.2%
32.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.7%vs his norm —
337 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.0 mph
93.0 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.0 mphvs his norm —
1347 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.1%→22.2%signal0 K — K% 18.1% (signal) lifted to career ~29.0% → projected 22.2% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.35signal4.26 ERA — xERA 4.35 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 22 IP.
BB% 10.1% + contactsignal1.40 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.283 gives a 1.45 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.26 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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