week 18
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Max Scherzer
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — skill near league average (6.31); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 40ERA 4.14WHIP 1.31W 1–2SV 0
Scherzer is a hold — the ceiling is capped by a fading K rate.
ROS projects K 14 YTD → 40 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %13.7%—−15.3% ▼vs his ~29.0% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (6.31)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
76 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed13.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.2%vs his norm —
76 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.378
lg avg .315 ▲+.063vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
102 / 200 TBF
xERA6.31
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.21vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
102 / 200 TBF
ERA10.23
lg avg 4.10 ▲+6.13vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
22 / 200 IP
Strikeout %13.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−8.3%vs his norm −15.3% ▼
102 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm +4.3% ▲Walk % is above his ~6.5% norm — expect it to fall.
102 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.269
lg avg .295 ▼−.026vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
76 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —
102 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
102 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.1 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.9 mphvs his norm —
425 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 13.7%→23.8%signal40 K — K% 13.7% (signal) lifted to career ~29.0% → projected 23.8% over ~37 remaining IP.
xERA 6.31noise4.14 ERA — xERA 6.31 (noise) blended 2% skill / 98% league 4.10 at 22 IP.
BB% 10.8% + contactnoise1.31 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.61 skill WHIP, blended 2…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop40 K ROS, 4.14 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.