MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 28, 2026
week 18
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Yusei Kikuchi

LAA·P
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Hold · wait & see BABIP-against 0.352 elevated and unstable, the 5.81 ERA overstates the damage; but luck-free xERA 4.93 is +0.83 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.55
ROSK 43ERA 4.18WHIP 1.31W 0–0SV 0

Kikuchi is a hold — the data is still settling.

His 5.81 ERA is inflated by a .352 BABIP-against that needs 800 balls in play to be reliable and currently sits at 94 — that is noise, not a true measure of his work. But strip the luck out and his expected ERA is 4.93, still 0.83 above league average. The contact quality he allows is a hair above league: 42.6% hard-hit and 8.5% barrels, both barely above average and stable at this sample. His strikeout rate is 23.2%, the whiff rate is 12.5% — decent but not elite. He throws 95.4 mph with a good chase rate. The pieces are there to be better, but there is no evidence yet that the skill exceeds league average. Limited data: this call rests on the first stable sample of the season. Hold. The 4.18 ERA / 43 K line is a borderline 12-team streamer, not a must-hold — feel free to cut for a hot wire.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %23.2%—−0.6% ▼vs his ~23.8% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.352 elevated and unstable — the 5.81 ERA overstates the damage
  • xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 4.93 is +0.83 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.6%
42.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
94 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.5%
8.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
94 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.340
.340*
lg avg .315 ▲+.025vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
142 / 200 TBF
xERA4.93
4.93*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.83vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
142 / 200 TBF
ERA5.81
5.81*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.71vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
31 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.2%
norm23.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm −0.6% ▼
142 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.9%
norm9.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm +1.5% ▲Walk % is above his ~8.4% norm — expect it to fall.
142 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.352
.352*
lg avg .295 ▲+.057vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
94 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.5%
12.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
142 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.4%
27.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
142 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.4 mph
95.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.4 mphvs his norm —
567 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.2%→23.6%signal43 K — K% 23.2% (signal) lifted to career ~23.8% → projected 23.6% over ~40 remaining IP.
xERA 4.93noise4.18 ERA — xERA 4.93 (noise) blended 10% skill / 90% league 4.10 at 31 IP.
BB% 9.9% + contactnoise1.31 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.302 gives a 1.43 skill WHIP, blended 1…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop43 K ROS, 4.18 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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