Yusei Kikuchi
Kikuchi is a sell — his skill is below league with no luck to blame.
His expected ERA is 5.08, nearly a full run above the league average of 4.10, and his sample is large enough that the number is reliable. That gap is not the product of bad breaks. He walks 10.3% of batters, well above the league average of 8.0%, and his walk rate is a persistent flaw rather than a fluke of sequencing. He allows a 46.1% hard-hit rate and a .343 expected wOBA against, both above league, and his xERA has been climbing across the sample rather than settling down. He throws hard — 95.5 mph — but the results do not follow the velocity. There is no suppressed BABIP or bad-luck story propping up the profile; this is simply where he sits. Sell. A 0 K / 4.74 ERA / 1.42 WHIP line is dead weight — cut him now, not a deep-league stash.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %21.3%—−2.5% ▼vs his ~23.8% career norm
- Walk %10.3%—+1.9% ▲vs his ~8.4% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.08 +0.98 vs league with no luck excuse
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.