week 27
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Brant Hurter
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Sell High BABIP-against 0.232 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 3.78 is 0.84 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.89 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.25W 0–0SV 0
Hurter is a sell-high — his ERA is built on luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %17.5%—−4.9% ▼vs his ~22.4% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.232 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.78 is 0.84 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed32.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−8.0%vs his norm —
97 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.9%vs his norm —
97 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.300
lg avg .315 ▼−.015vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
137 / 200 TBF
xERA3.78
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.32vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
137 / 200 TBF
ERA2.94
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.16vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
33.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.5%vs his norm −4.9% ▼
137 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.9%vs his norm +2.8% ▲Walk % is above his ~8.1% norm — expect it to fall.
137 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.232
lg avg .295 ▼−.063vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
97 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm —
137 / 60 TBF
Chase %26.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.0%vs his norm —
137 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.7 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.3 mphvs his norm —
488 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.5%→20.4%signal0 K — K% 17.5% (signal) lifted to career ~22.4% → projected 20.4% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.78noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.78 (noise) blended 5% skill / 95% league 3.70 at 25 IP.
BB% 10.9% + contactnoise1.25 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.287 gives a 1.52 skill WHIP, blended 5…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.