week 12
this weekSELL-HIGH
last week—
Brant Hurter
data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Sell High BABIP-against 0.206 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 3.72 is 0.88 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.90 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 31ERA 3.70WHIP 1.26W 3–9SV 0
Hurter is a sell-high — BABIP is doing the heavy lifting.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %17.8%—−4.6% ▼vs his ~22.4% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.206 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.72 is 0.88 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed32.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.1%vs his norm —
70 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.7%vs his norm —
70 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.304
lg avg .315 ▼−.011vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
101 / 200 TBF
xERA3.72
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.38vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
101 / 200 TBF
ERA2.84
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.26vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
25.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.2%vs his norm −4.6% ▼
101 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.9%vs his norm +3.8% ▲Walk % is above his ~8.1% norm — expect it to fall.
101 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.206
lg avg .295 ▼−.089vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
70 / 800 BIP
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.8%→20.9%signal31 K — K% 17.8% (signal) lifted to career ~22.4% → projected 20.9% over ~37 remaining IP.
xERA 3.72noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.72 (noise) blended 5% skill / 95% league 3.70 at 25 IP.
BB% 11.9% + contactnoise1.26 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.287 gives a 1.56 skill WHIP, blended 5…
run support + role3-9 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.