MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Raisel Iglesias
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekNO CALL

Raisel Iglesias

ATL·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
new call as of September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.57, 0.53 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.76
ROSK 6ERA 3.57WHIP 1.25W 0–0SV 2–3

Iglesias is a buy — earned run prevention, nothing lucky about it

His xERA is 3.57, more than half a run below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. Nothing in the profile is propping it up: his xwOBA allowed of .293 sits below the .315 league mark, and with 214 batters faced that sample is past the point where it stabilizes. The swing-and-miss foundation is there — a 25.7% strikeout rate, a 15.6% swinging-strike rate nearly five points above league, and a 38.5% chase rate. The xERA has been stepping down as the sample has grown, and his velocity is stepping up, sitting at 94.4 mph. The command is fine too, a 7.5% walk rate under league average. The skill is real and it is stable. Buy. Deep-league asset: 6 K, 3.57 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 2-3 SV over the ROS make him worth adding now.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %25.7%—−3.7% ▼vs his ~29.4% career norm
  • Walk %7.5%—+0.7% ▲vs his ~6.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.57, 0.53 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.6%
believable since Jun 736.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.4%vs his norm —
142 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.9%
9.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
142 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.293
.293*
lg avg .315 ▼−.022vs his norm —
214 / 200 TBF
xERA3.57
3.57*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.53vs his norm —
214 / 200 TBF
ERA2.72
2.72*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.38vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
53 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.7%
norm25.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.7%vs his norm −3.7% ▼
214 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.5%
norm7.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm +0.7% ▲
214 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.292
.292*
lg avg .295 ▼−.003vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
142 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.6%
15.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.6%vs his norm —
214 / 60 TBF
Chase %38.5%
38.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+10.0%vs his norm —
214 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.4 mph
94.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.4 mphvs his norm —
811 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.7%→27.5%signal6 K — K% 25.7% (signal) lifted to career ~29.4% → projected 27.5% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 3.57signal3.57 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.57 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.5% + contactsignal1.25 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.25 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)2-3 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep13 SV, 3.57 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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