MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Raisel Iglesias
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekNO CALL

Raisel Iglesias

ATL·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
new call as of October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.50, 0.60 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.78
ROSK 0ERA 3.50WHIP 1.21W 0–0SV 0–0

Iglesias is a buy — the strikeout skill is real and earned

His expected ERA is 3.50, six-tenths of a run better than the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to hold. The strikeout rate is where it comes from: he fans 26.8% of hitters against a league mark of 22.0%, and that is a stable figure at this workload. He pairs it with a 7.1% walk rate, below league, and a 15.7% swinging-strike rate that runs well past the 11.0% norm — batters swing through his stuff. His fastball is sitting at 94.3 mph and stepping up across the sample, so nothing in the profile is fading. The expected ERA has been stepping down as the season has gone on. There is no luck stat holding the line up; the run prevention is simply earned. Buy. 0 SV yet, but 3.50 ERA and 1.21 WHIP make him a deep-league asset to acquire now.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %26.8%—−2.6% ▼vs his ~29.4% career norm
  • Walk %7.1%—+0.3% ▲vs his ~6.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.50, 0.60 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.6%
believable since Jun 737.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.4%vs his norm —
157 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.6%
9.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
157 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.289
.289*
lg avg .315 ▼−.026vs his norm —
239 / 200 TBF
xERA3.50
3.50*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.60vs his norm —
239 / 200 TBF
ERA2.55
2.55*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.55vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
60 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.8%
norm26.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.8%vs his norm −2.6% ▼
239 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.1%
norm7.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm +0.3% ▲
239 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.278
.278*
lg avg .295 ▼−.017vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
157 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.7%
15.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.7%vs his norm —
239 / 60 TBF
Chase %39.0%
39.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+10.5%vs his norm —
239 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.3 mph
94.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.3 mphvs his norm —
911 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.8%→28.0%signal0 K — K% 26.8% (signal) lifted to career ~29.4% → projected 28.0% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.50signal3.50 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.50 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.1% + contactsignal1.21 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.21 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep10 SV, 3.50 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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