week 27
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Connor Phillips
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Sell High BABIP-against 0.250 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 6.39 is 1.11 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.89WHIP 1.29W 0–0SV 0–0
Phillips is a sell-high — his ERA is running on luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %20.0%—−6.3% ▼vs his ~26.3% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.250 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 6.39 is 1.11 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm —
79 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
79 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.378
lg avg .315 ▲+.063vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
140 / 200 TBF
xERA6.39
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.29vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
140 / 200 TBF
ERA5.28
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.18vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
29 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm −6.3% ▼
140 / 70 TBF
Walk %21.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+13.4%vs his norm +5.2% ▲Walk % is above his ~16.2% norm — expect it to fall.
140 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.250
lg avg .295 ▼−.045vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
79 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
140 / 60 TBF
Chase %20.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−8.0%vs his norm —
140 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+4.3 mphvs his norm —
569 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.0%→23.7%signal0 K — K% 20.0% (signal) lifted to career ~26.3% → projected 23.7% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 6.39noise3.89 ERA — xERA 6.39 (noise) blended 7% skill / 93% league 3.70 at 28 IP.
BB% 21.4% + contactnoise1.29 WHIP — a 21% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.291 gives a 2.03 skill WHIP, blended 7…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-0 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdrop3.89 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.