Griffin Canning
Canning is a hold — the ERA is inflated, but the skill is thin.
The 5.68 ERA is louder than the pitching. His BABIP-against is .331, well above the league average of .295, and BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable. He has 257. That gap is luck, and it is dragging the ERA down past where the skill sits. Strip it out and his expected ERA is 4.69 — still 0.59 above league average, and that number is stable across 391 batters faced. His walk rate of 10.5% is above league, his hard-hit rate allowed is 45.1%, and his expected ERA has been stepping upward across the sample. The panic is overdone, but there is no buy here either — the level he regresses to is below average. Hold. A 0 K / 4.48 ERA / 1.43 WHIP line is a drop-tier drag — hold only because 0-0 W and 0 SV offer nothing to stream for.
VS His Norm
- Walk %10.5%—+1.6% ▲vs his ~8.9% career norm
- Strikeout %22.3%—+0.2% ▲vs his ~22.1% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.331 elevated and unstable — the 5.68 ERA overstates the damage
- xeraSIGNALbut luck-free xERA 4.69 is +0.59 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.