MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Griffin Canning
week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Griffin Canning

SD·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · leans sell but luck-free xERA 4.67 is +0.57 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy — BABIP-against 0.338 elevated and unstable, the 6.47 ERA overstates the damage; a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSK 46ERA 4.47WHIP 1.47W 0–0SV 0

Canning is a hold — skill is below average, ERA is just noise.

His expected ERA is 4.67 — half a run above league average — and he has passed enough batters faced for that number to be reliable. His strikeout rate is near league average, but his walk rate is 12.1%, well above the 8% league mark, and that is a persistent problem. The good news: his ERA of 6.47 overstates the damage, because his BABIP-against of .338 is 43 points above the league average of .295 and is not yet reliable at 160 BIP. So the panic around the line is overdone. But the skill that is stable — the xERA, the walk rate, the barrel rate allowed — is below average, not a buy opportunity. The middle ground is the correct stance. Hold. 46 K, 4.47 ERA, 1.47 WHIP — a deep-league streaming-only era tax, not a must-hold.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %12.1%—+3.2% ▲vs his ~8.9% career norm
  • Strikeout %22.3%—+0.2% ▲vs his ~22.1% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.338 elevated and unstable — the 6.47 ERA overstates the damage
  • xeraSIGNALbut luck-free xERA 4.67 is +0.57 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed47.5%
believable since May 2547.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+7.5%vs his norm —
160 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.8%
8.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
160 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.333
.333*
lg avg .315 ▲+.018vs his norm —
247 / 200 TBF
xERA4.67
4.67*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.57vs his norm —
247 / 200 TBF
ERA6.47
6.47*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.37vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
55.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.3%
norm22.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm +0.2% ▲
247 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.1%
norm12.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.1%vs his norm +3.2% ▲
247 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.338
.338*
lg avg .295 ▲+.043vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
160 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.6%
10.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
247 / 60 TBF
Chase %23.9%
23.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−4.6%vs his norm —
247 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.3 mph
94.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.3 mphvs his norm —
984 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.3%→22.2%signal46 K — K% 22.3% (signal) tempered to career ~22.1% → projected 22.2% over ~47 remaining…
xERA 4.67signal4.47 ERA — xERA 4.67 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 28 IP.
BB% 12.1% + contactsignal1.47 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.304 gives a 1.55 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop46 K ROS, 4.47 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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