MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Griffin Canning
week 25
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last weekHOLD

Griffin Canning

SD·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · leans sell but luck-free xERA 4.56 is +0.46 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy — BABIP-against 0.329 elevated and unstable, the 5.87 ERA overstates the damage; a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSK 11ERA 4.40WHIP 1.42W 0–0SV 0

Canning is a hold — the ERA overstates it, but so does the panic.

His ERA is 5.87, and that number is not the truth. His BABIP-against is .329, 34 points above the league average of .295, and BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable. He has 230. Some of that gap is luck, and it is why the surface looks worse than the pitching. But strip the noise out and his expected ERA is 4.56 — .46 above league average — and that number is stable at 353 batters faced. The skill he regresses to is below average, not merely unlucky. He walks 10.5% of batters against a league average of 8.0%, he strikes out a league-average 22.7%, and his hard-hit rate allowed is 45.2%. His expected ERA has been stepping up across the sample. This is not a buy-low. Hold.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %10.5%—+1.6% ▲vs his ~8.9% career norm
  • Strikeout %22.7%—+0.6% ▲vs his ~22.1% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.329 elevated and unstable — the 5.87 ERA overstates the damage
  • xeraSIGNALbut luck-free xERA 4.56 is +0.46 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed45.2%
believable since May 2545.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.2%vs his norm —
230 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.7%
8.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
230 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.328
.328*
lg avg .315 ▲+.013vs his norm —
353 / 200 TBF
xERA4.56
4.56*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.46vs his norm —
353 / 200 TBF
ERA5.87
5.87*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.77vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
79.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.7%
norm22.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm +0.6% ▲
353 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.5%
norm10.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm +1.6% ▲
353 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.329
.329*
lg avg .295 ▲+.034vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
230 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.7%
11.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
353 / 60 TBF
Chase %26.5%
26.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.0%vs his norm —
353 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.5 mph
94.5 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.5 mphvs his norm —
1391 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.7%→22.5%signal11 K — K% 22.7% (signal) tempered to career ~22.1% → projected 22.5% over ~11 remaining…
xERA 4.56signal4.40 ERA — xERA 4.56 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 28 IP.
BB% 10.5% + contactsignal1.42 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.305 gives a 1.48 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop11 K ROS, 4.40 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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