MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of JT Brubaker
week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD

JT Brubaker

SF·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Sell High BABIP-against 0.223 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 4.55 is 1.68 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 21WHIP 1.26ERA 3.78W 0–0SV 0

Brubaker is a sell-high — ERA built on BABIP luck.

His ERA is 2.87, but that number relies on a BABIP-against of .223 — 72 points below league average. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to stabilize; he has only 134. That gap is pure luck, not skill. His expected ERA is 4.55, confirming the surface is flattered. His strikeout rate is below league average, his walk rate is above, and his swinging-strike rate is below average — there is no underlying stuff story to fall back on. The limited sample means this call rests on the first reliable signals: the ERA is unsustainable, and regression is baked in. Sell high. 21 K with a 3.78 ERA and 1.26 WHIP is a deep-league sell window before regression closes it.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %17.6%—−5.0% ▼vs his ~22.6% career norm
  • Walk %10.7%—+2.4% ▲vs his ~8.3% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.223 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.55 is 1.68 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.6%
36.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.4%vs his norm —
134 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.0%
6.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm —
134 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.329
.329*
lg avg .315 ▲+.014vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
187 / 200 TBF
xERA4.55
4.55*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.45vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
187 / 200 TBF
ERA2.87
2.87*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.23vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
47 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.6%
norm17.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.4%vs his norm −5.0% ▼
187 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.7%
normbelievable since Jun 3010.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.7%vs his norm +2.4% ▲
187 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.223
.223*
lg avg .295 ▼−.072vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
134 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.4%
9.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —
187 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.8%
29.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
187 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.2 mph
93.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.8 mphvs his norm —
743 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.6%→20.2%signal21 K — K% 17.6% (signal) lifted to career ~22.6% → projected 20.2% over ~25 remaining IP.
xERA 4.55noise3.78 ERA — xERA 4.55 (noise) blended 9% skill / 91% league 3.70 at 30 IP.
BB% 10.7% + contactsignal1.26 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.283 gives a 1.49 skill WHIP, blended 9…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.78 ERA, 1.26 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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