MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of JT Brubaker
week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD

JT Brubaker

SF·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 10-DAY IL
flipped from HOLD
Sell High luck-free xERA 4.98 is 1.40 above the ERA, regression coming; strikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — BABIP-against 0.247 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 5ERA 4.53WHIP 1.42W 0–0SV 0

Brubaker is a sell-high — his 3.58 ERA is BABIP luck, not skill.

His ERA sits at 3.58, but the number holding it down is his BABIP-against: .247, 48 points below the league average of .295. That gap is luck, not skill — BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to become reliable and he has 183. His expected ERA is 4.98, nearly a run and a half above what the box score shows, and his xERA has been stepping up across the sample. The ceiling is limited too: he strikes out just 15.6% of batters, well below the league average of 22% and below his own 22.6% career baseline, and that rate has been stepping down. Nothing here is propping up the ERA but the bounces. Sell high. Regression to a 4.53 ERA and 1.42 WHIP makes this a drop — sell the inflated line while the window is open.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %15.6%—−7.0% ▼vs his ~22.6% career norm
  • Walk %10.4%—+2.1% ▲vs his ~8.3% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.247 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.98 is 1.40 above the ERA — regression coming
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.1%
36.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.9%vs his norm —
183 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.5%
5.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm —
183 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.341
.341*
lg avg .315 ▲+.026vs his norm —
250 / 200 TBF
xERA4.98
4.98*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.88vs his norm —
250 / 200 TBF
ERA3.58
3.58*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.52vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
60.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %15.6%
norm15.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.4%vs his norm −7.0% ▼
250 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.4%
norm10.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm +2.1% ▲
250 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.247
.247*
lg avg .295 ▼−.048vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
183 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.4%
9.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —
250 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.4%
30.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
250 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.2 mph
93.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.8 mphvs his norm —
1000 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 15.6%→18.7%signal5 K — K% 15.6% (signal) lifted to career ~22.6% → projected 18.7% over ~6 remaining IP.
xERA 4.98signal4.53 ERA — xERA 4.98 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 30 IP.
BB% 10.4% + contactsignal1.42 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.284 gives a 1.51 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop4.53 ERA, 1.42 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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