week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD
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JT Brubaker
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Brubaker is a sell-high — his ERA has luck built in.
His ERA sits at 2.70, but the numbers underneath do not support it. The main reason is his BABIP-against of .267, 28 points below league average. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to stabilize; he has 87 — that gap is luck, not skill. Strip out the sequencing luck and his expected ERA climbs to 4.71, a two-run gap that points directly at regression. He does limit hard contact: a 33.3% hard-hit rate and 4.6% barrel rate, both below league average. But with a strikeout rate of 17.7% — below the 22% league mark — there is no elite stuff to fall back on when the BABIP normalizes. Limited data: this call rests on the ERA-vs-xERA split being noise-driven. Sell high.
Sell High
high0.95
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.267 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.71 is 2.01 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL87 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL87 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.340
lg avg .315 ▲+.025too early to trust
NOISE124 / 200 TBF
xERA4.71
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.61too early to trust
NOISE124 / 200 TBF
ERA2.70
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.40too early to trust
NOISE30 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.3%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL124 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.1%too early to trust
NOISE124 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.267
lg avg .295 ▼−.028too early to trust
NOISE87 / 800 BIP