week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Philip Abner
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell High BABIP-against 0.250 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 7.33 is 1.05 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 4ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Abner is a sell-high — the ERA hides a 7.33 xERA.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.250 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 7.33 is 1.05 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.0%
lg avg 40.0% 0.0%vs his norm —
50 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed12.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.0%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
50 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.401
lg avg .315 ▲+.086vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
64 / 200 TBF
xERA7.33
lg avg 4.10 ▲+3.23vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
64 / 200 TBF
ERA6.28
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.18vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
14.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %9.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−12.6%vs his norm —Strikeout % is below the ~22.0% league average — expect it to rise.
64 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.5%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
64 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.250
lg avg .295 ▼−.045vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
50 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.4%vs his norm —
64 / 60 TBF
Chase %26.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
64 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo90.6 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−3.4 mphvs his norm —
245 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 9.4%→12.3%noise4 K — K% 9.4% (noise) lifted to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 12.3% over ~6 remaining IP.
xERA 7.33noise3.70 ERA — xERA 7.33 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 2 IP.
BB% 12.5% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.79 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.