MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Philip Abner

NYM·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High strikeout rate 12% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — BABIP-against 0.254 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 7.72 is 0.61 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.79
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Abner is a sell-high — his low BABIP-against is covering real trouble.

His BABIP-against is .254, 41 points under the league average of .295, and that gap is the only thing making his surface stats look presentable. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 65, so the number tells you nothing about his pitching yet. The stable skills say plenty, and none of it is flattering. He strikes out 11.6% of batters against a league average of 22.0%, and that rate has been stepping down across the sample. He allows barrels on 15.4% of batted balls against a league average of 8.0%. His 90.6 mph fastball sits well below the 94.0 league mark. Nothing here is getting better when the batted-ball luck evens out. Sell high. The 3.70 ERA / 1.24 WHIP is a sell-now number for a deep-league asset — trade the window before regression hits.

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.254 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 7.72 is 0.61 above the ERA — regression coming
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 12% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.5%
38.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
65 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed15.4%
15.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+7.4%vs his norm —
65 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.408
.408*
lg avg .315 ▲+.093vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
86 / 200 TBF
xERA7.72
7.72*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+3.62vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
86 / 200 TBF
ERA7.11
7.11*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+3.01vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
19 / 200 IP
Strikeout %11.6%
11.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−10.4%vs his norm —
86 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.8%
12.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.8%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
86 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.254
.254*
lg avg .295 ▼−.041vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
65 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.6%
8.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.4%vs his norm —
86 / 60 TBF
Chase %26.1%
26.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.4%vs his norm —
86 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo90.6 mph
90.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−3.4 mphvs his norm —
313 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 11.6%→14.1%signal0 K — K% 11.6% (signal) lifted to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 14.1% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 7.72noise3.70 ERA — xERA 7.72 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 2 IP.
BB% 12.8% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 13% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.75 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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