week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
George Kirby
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (3.85); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 50ERA 3.85WHIP 1.31W 3–6SV 0
Kirby is a hold — league-average skill with no edge either way.
ROS projects K 59 YTD → 50 ROS, ERA 3.77 YTD → 3.85 ROS, WHIP 1.22 YTD → 1.31 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %21.5%—−1.9% ▼vs his ~23.4% career norm
- Walk %5.3%—+1.5% ▲vs his ~3.8% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.85)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
332 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
332 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.305
lg avg .315 ▼−.010vs his norm —
456 / 200 TBF
xERA3.85
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.25vs his norm —
456 / 200 TBF
ERA3.76
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.34vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
110 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm −1.9% ▼
456 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.7%vs his norm +1.5% ▲
456 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.343
lg avg .295 ▲+.048vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
332 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
456 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.1%vs his norm —
456 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.7 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.7 mphvs his norm —
1668 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.5%→22.1%signal50 K — K% 21.5% (signal) lifted to career ~23.4% → projected 22.1% over ~61 remaining IP.
xERA 3.85signal3.85 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.85 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 5.3% + contactsignal1.31 WHIP — a 5% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.315 gives a 1.32 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role3-6 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep50 K ROS, 3.85 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.