MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of George Kirby
week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

George Kirby

SEA·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · steady skill near league average (4.21); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 4.17WHIP 1.39W 0–0SV 0

Kirby is a hold — the profile lands at league average.

His expected ERA of 4.21 sits just above the league mark of 4.10, and across 741 batters faced that number is past the point where it becomes reliable. His expected wOBA allowed is .315 — exactly league average — so there is no gap between the surface and the skill to sell. His strikeout rate of 20.0% runs two points under league, but his walk rate of 6.3% makes up for it, and his swinging-strike rate of 11.7% is slightly above league with a chase rate of 34.3% well above it. His hard-hit rate allowed (40.1%) and barrel rate allowed (6.6%) are both near or under league. One wrinkle: the xERA trend is stepping up across the sample, which is worth watching rather than acting on. Nothing unstable is driving the line in either direction. Hold. 0 K / 4.17 ERA / 1.39 WHIP is a drop-tier line; hold him only as a deep-league streamer, not a roster asset.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %20.0%—−3.4% ▼vs his ~23.4% career norm
  • Walk %6.3%—+2.5% ▲vs his ~3.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.21)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.1%
40.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
543 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.6%
6.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
543 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.315
.315*
lg avg .315 .000vs his norm —
741 / 200 TBF
xERA4.21
4.21*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.11vs his norm —
741 / 200 TBF
ERA4.33
4.33*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.23vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
174.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.0%
norm20.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm −3.4% ▼
741 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.3%
norm6.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm +2.5% ▲
741 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.337
.337*
lg avg .295 ▲+.042vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
543 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.7%
11.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
741 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.3%
34.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.8%vs his norm —
741 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.7 mph
96.7 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.7 mphvs his norm —
2758 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.0%→20.7%signal0 K — K% 20.0% (signal) lifted to career ~23.4% → projected 20.7% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.21signal4.17 ERA — xERA 4.21 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 74 IP.
BB% 6.3% + contactsignal1.39 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.324 gives a 1.43 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.17 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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