Is George Kirby a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Hold — mixed signals; no compelling reason to add or drop right now.

What is George Kirby's rest-of-season outlook?

Roughly league-average with nothing unstable driving it. Hold.

week 25

this weekHOLD

last weekHOLD

George Kirby

SEA·P

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25

Hold · steady skill near league average (4.03); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60

ROSK 11ERA 4.03WHIP 1.35W 1–1SV 0

Kirby is a hold — league average, nothing unstable to move him.

His expected ERA is 4.03, basically the league average of 4.10, and he has 667 batters faced behind it — well past the point where that number becomes reliable. His actual results track right with it, so there is no luck story in either direction. He strikes out 19.9% of batters, a touch below league, and walks just 5.5%, meaning he is around the plate and letting contact decide it. The contact he allows is league average across the board: a .310 xwOBA allowed against .315 league. He throws 96.7 and gets chases, but neither is changing his run prevention. The profile is stable, not a place to find an edge. Hold. 11 K and a 4.03 ERA ROS make him a fringe hold at best — deep-league streaming-only, not a roster stash.

VS His Norm

Strikeout %19.9%—−3.5% ▼vs his ~23.4% career norm
Walk %5.5%—+1.7% ▲vs his ~3.8% career norm

Drivers

xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.03)

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Hard-Hit % Allowed40.3%

lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —

494 / 50 BBE

Barrel % Allowed6.9%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —

494 / 60 BBE

xwOBA Allowed.310

lg avg .315 ▼−.005vs his norm —

667 / 200 TBF

xERA4.03

lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.07vs his norm —

667 / 200 TBF

ERA4.18

lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.08vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.

159.3 / 200 IP

Strikeout %19.9%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm −3.5% ▼

667 / 70 TBF

Walk %5.5%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm +1.7% ▲

667 / 170 TBF

BABIP Against.332

lg avg .295 ▲+.037vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.

494 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %11.4%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —

667 / 60 TBF

Chase %34.8%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.3%vs his norm —

667 / 60 TBF

Fastball Velo96.7 mph

lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.7 mphvs his norm —

2468 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

K% 19.9%→20.7%signal11 K — K% 19.9% (signal) lifted to career ~23.4% → projected 20.7% over ~14 remaining IP.

xERA 4.03signal4.03 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 4.03 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…

BB% 5.5% + contactsignal1.35 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.318 gives a 1.37 skill WHIP, blended 65…

run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.

role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.

rosterdrop11 K ROS, 4.03 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons