week 10
this weekSELL
last weekSELL
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Jack Kochanowicz
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Kochanowicz is a sell — skill is below league with no luck excuse.
His expected ERA is 5.17, more than a full run above the league average of 4.10, and the sample is reliable. There is no luck padding the number: his BABIP-against sits near league average. The trend is worsening — his xERA has stepped up across the sample while his strikeout rate has stepped down. He strikes out just 16% of batters, well below the 22% league average, and walks 12.2% — above average. The discipline metrics cap any upside. His expected wOBA allowed is .354, 39 points above league. None of this is noise. He is what the numbers say he is, and the market should not pay for more. Sell.
Sell
high0.87
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.17 +1.07 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.6%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL202 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL202 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.354
lg avg .315 ▲+.039trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL288 / 200 TBF
xERA5.17
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.07trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL288 / 200 TBF
ERA5.23
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.13too early to trust
NOISE63.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %16.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.0%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL288 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL288 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.270
lg avg .295 ▼−.025too early to trust
NOISE202 / 800 BIP