MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Jack Kochanowicz
week 25
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Jack Kochanowicz

LAA·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Sell stable xERA 5.61 +1.51 vs league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling; move on.high 0.90
ROSK 9ERA 5.08WHIP 1.52W 0–1SV 0

Kochanowicz is a sell — the strikeout rate caps everything.

His expected ERA is 5.61, a run and a half above the league average of 4.10, and his sample is past the point where that number becomes reliable. The problem starts with the strikeout rate: 15.9%, well below the league average of 22%. He has never missed bats at this level — his career baseline is 13.4% — so there is no hidden strikeout spike coming to bail him out. It has been trending down across the sample, and that trajectory points the wrong way for a pitcher already allowing a .359 expected wOBA. His hard-hit rate allowed of 42.8% is above league, and he walks 12.2% of batters. Nothing here is unlucky. The xERA keeps stepping up, not down. Sell. 9 K and a 5.08 ERA ROS confirm the fade — this is a drop, streaming-only arm, not a stash.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %12.2%—+2.5% ▲vs his ~9.7% career norm
  • Strikeout %15.9%—+2.5% ▲vs his ~13.4% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.61 +1.51 vs league with no luck excuse
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.8%
42.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm —
208 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.2%
7.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
208 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.359
.359*
lg avg .315 ▲+.044vs his norm —
296 / 200 TBF
xERA5.61
5.61*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.51vs his norm —
296 / 200 TBF
ERA6.19
6.19*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.09vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
64 / 200 IP
Strikeout %15.9%
norm15.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.1%vs his norm +2.5% ▲
296 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.2%
norm12.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.2%vs his norm +2.5% ▲
296 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.289
.289*
lg avg .295 ▼−.006vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
208 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.7%
10.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
296 / 60 TBF
Chase %25.6%
25.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.9%vs his norm —
296 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.2 mph
96.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.2 mphvs his norm —
1106 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 15.9%→14.9%signal9 K — K% 15.9% (signal) tempered to career ~13.4% → projected 14.9% over ~13 remaining IP.
xERA 5.61signal5.08 ERA — xERA 5.61 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 64 IP.
BB% 12.2% + contactsignal1.52 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.293 gives a 1.64 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop9 K ROS, 5.08 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups