Jack Kochanowicz
Kochanowicz is a sell — the stuff never backs up the results
His expected ERA sits at 5.62, a run and a half worse than the league average of 4.10, and his sample of 296 batters is past the point where that number becomes reliable. Nothing is hiding the damage: his BABIP-against is not propping up his line, so there is no bad-luck story to wait out. The strikeout rate is the real problem. He fans just 15.9% of batters against a 22% league average, and that number has been trending down even as it edges above his 13.4% career baseline. Meanwhile his xERA has been stepping up across the sample. He strikes out nobody, walks 12.2% of batters, and lets the ball get hit hard. The fastball velocity buys him nothing at this level of command. Sell. 0 K and a 5.09 ERA rest of season: a drop, not a hold — streaming-only fringe arm.
VS His Norm
- Walk %12.2%—+2.5% ▲vs his ~9.7% career norm
- Strikeout %15.9%—+2.5% ▲vs his ~13.4% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.62 +1.52 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.