week 17
this weekSELL
last weekSELL
Jack Kochanowicz
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Sell stable xERA 5.55 +1.45 vs league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling; move on.high 0.90 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 39ERA 5.04WHIP 1.52W 1–3SV 0
Kochanowicz is a sell — skill without a luck excuse.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Walk %12.2%—+2.5% ▲vs his ~9.7% career norm
- Strikeout %15.9%—+2.5% ▲vs his ~13.4% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.55 +1.45 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm —
208 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
208 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.359
lg avg .315 ▲+.044vs his norm —
296 / 200 TBF
xERA5.55
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.45vs his norm —
296 / 200 TBF
ERA6.19
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.09vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
64 / 200 IP
Strikeout %15.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.1%vs his norm +2.5% ▲
296 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.2%vs his norm +2.5% ▲
296 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.289
lg avg .295 ▼−.006vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
208 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
296 / 60 TBF
Chase %25.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.9%vs his norm —
296 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.2 mphvs his norm —
1106 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 15.9%→14.9%signal39 K — K% 15.9% (signal) tempered to career ~13.4% → projected 14.9% over ~57 remaining…
xERA 5.55signal5.04 ERA — xERA 5.55 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 64 IP.
BB% 12.2% + contactsignal1.52 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.293 gives a 1.64 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop39 K ROS, 5.04 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.