week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.21 is 0.36 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.229 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.79 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 63ERA 3.21WHIP 1.11W 3–6SV 0
Yamamoto is a sell-high — ERA is BABIP fairy dust.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %24.9%—−3.5% ▼vs his ~28.4% career norm
- Walk %5.9%—−1.4% ▼vs his ~7.3% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.229 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.21 is 0.36 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.9%vs his norm —
291 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
291 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.280
lg avg .315 ▼−.035vs his norm —
425 / 200 TBF
xERA3.21
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.89vs his norm —
425 / 200 TBF
ERA2.85
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.25vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
110.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.9%vs his norm −3.5% ▼
425 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm −1.4% ▼
425 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.229
lg avg .295 ▼−.066vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
291 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm —
425 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.2%vs his norm —
425 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.1 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.1 mphvs his norm —
1658 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.9%→26.0%signal63 K — K% 24.9% (signal) lifted to career ~28.4% → projected 26.0% over ~61 remaining IP.
xERA 3.21signal3.21 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.21 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 5.9% + contactsignal1.11 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.271 gives a 1.11 skill WHIP.
run support + role3-6 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep63 K ROS, 3.21 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.