Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Yamamoto is a sell-high — his ERA is riding suppressed BABIP.
His ERA is 2.53, but the number holding it down is his BABIP-against: .217, 78 points below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 477 — that gap is luck, and it is the reason the ERA looks like an ace's. His expected ERA is 2.94, still excellent but 0.41 above the surface line, and that xERA has been stepping down across the sample. The skill underneath is real: 25.7% strikeouts, 5.9% walks, a .266 xwOBA allowed with 708 batters faced behind it. The stuff is genuine; the ERA is not quite as low as the pitching. Sell high while the surface line still commands a premium. Trade return now prices a 2.53 ERA but ROS line reads 0 K / 2.94 ERA / 1.02 WHIP — that gap is a sell-high window, not an asset to hold.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %25.7%—−2.7% ▼vs his ~28.4% career norm
- Walk %5.9%—−1.4% ▼vs his ~7.3% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.217 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 2.94 is 0.41 above the ERA — regression coming
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.