MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Yoshinobu Yamamoto
week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

LAD·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.03 is 0.36 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.224 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.79
ROSK 14ERA 3.03WHIP 1.05W 1–1SV 0

Yamamoto is a sell-high — his ERA is running on luck.

His ERA is 2.67, but that number is being held down by his BABIP-against: .224 against a league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 429. That gap is luck, and it is the whole reason his ERA looks like an ace's. His expected ERA is 3.03, 0.36 above the ERA on the scoreboard, and that expected ERA is the number with enough batters faced behind it to trust. The underlying skill is still good — he strikes out 25.4% of batters, walks only 6.0%, and his swinging-strike rate of 13.4% is above league. He is a strong pitcher whose surface line has been flattered by batted-ball luck. Sell high. 14 K and a 3.03 ERA the rest of the way still plays; the trade window is the asset, not the hold.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %25.4%—−3.0% ▼vs his ~28.4% career norm
  • Walk %6.0%—−1.3% ▼vs his ~7.3% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.224 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.03 is 0.36 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.9%
36.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.1%vs his norm —
429 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.5%
6.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
429 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.271
.271*
lg avg .315 ▼−.044vs his norm —
634 / 200 TBF
xERA3.03
3.03*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.07vs his norm —
634 / 200 TBF
ERA2.67
2.67*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.43vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
165 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.4%
norm25.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.4%vs his norm −3.0% ▼
634 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.0%
norm6.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm −1.3% ▼
634 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.224
.224*
lg avg .295 ▼−.071vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
429 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.4%
13.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm —
634 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.9%
32.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.4%vs his norm —
634 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.1 mph
96.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.1 mphvs his norm —
2465 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.4%→26.1%signal14 K — K% 25.4% (signal) lifted to career ~28.4% → projected 26.1% over ~14 remaining IP.
xERA 3.03signal3.03 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.03 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.0% + contactsignal1.05 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.257 gives a 1.05 skill WHIP.
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard14 K ROS, 3.03 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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