week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Victor Mederos
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell High BABIP-against 0.260 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 3.49 is 0.66 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.81 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Mederos is a sell-high — that ERA is BABIP luck, not skill.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %23.3%—+6.5% ▲vs his ~16.8% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.260 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.49 is 0.66 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
79 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.2%vs his norm —
79 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.290
lg avg .315 ▼−.025vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
120 / 200 TBF
xERA3.49
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.61vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
120 / 200 TBF
ERA2.83
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.27vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
28.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm +6.5% ▲
120 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm −7.6% ▼Walk % is below his ~16.8% norm — expect it to rise.
120 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.260
lg avg .295 ▼−.035vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
79 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.1%vs his norm —
120 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.7%vs his norm —
120 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.2 mphvs his norm —
477 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.3%→19.2%signal0 K — K% 23.3% (signal) tempered to career ~16.8% → projected 19.2% over ~6 remaining IP.
xERA 3.49noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.49 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 2 IP.
BB% 9.2% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.291 gives a 1.35 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.