MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Gordon Graceffo
week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Gordon Graceffo

STL·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell High strikeout rate 13% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — BABIP-against 0.183 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 5.73 is 2.82 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 13WHIP 1.27ERA 3.88W 2–5SV 0–1

Graceffo is a sell-high — ERA is supported by luck alone.

His ERA is 2.91, but the underlying numbers tell a different story. The stat keeping his ERA low is his BABIP-against: .183, 112 points below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 135 — that is luck, not skill. Strip out the noise and his expected ERA is 5.73, nearly three runs higher. His strikeout rate is 13.2%, well below his career baseline of 17.8% and the league average of 22%. That limits his upside and means he relies on batted-ball luck to avoid damage. Market price is pricing the ERA; the data says it will not last. Sell high. 13 K with a 3.88 ERA and 1.27 WHIP is a fringe asset; trade the 2-5 W while the window holds.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %13.2%—−4.6% ▼vs his ~17.8% career norm
  • Walk %11.5%—+3.8% ▲vs his ~7.7% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.183 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 5.73 is 2.82 above the ERA — regression coming
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 13% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed47.4%
47.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+7.4%vs his norm —
135 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed11.9%
11.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.9%vs his norm —
135 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.364
.364*
lg avg .315 ▲+.049vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
182 / 200 TBF
xERA5.73
5.73*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.63vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
182 / 200 TBF
ERA2.91
2.91*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.19vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
46.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %13.2%
norm13.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−8.8%vs his norm −4.6% ▼
182 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.5%
normbelievable since Jul 811.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm +3.8% ▲
182 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.183
.183*
lg avg .295 ▼−.112vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
135 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %7.0%
7.0%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−4.0%vs his norm —
182 / 60 TBF
Chase %24.5%
24.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−4.0%vs his norm —
182 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.6 mph
95.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.6 mphvs his norm —
659 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 13.2%→15.6%signal13 K — K% 13.2% (signal) lifted to career ~17.8% → projected 15.6% over ~24 remaining IP.
xERA 5.73noise3.88 ERA — xERA 5.73 (noise) blended 9% skill / 91% league 3.70 at 30 IP.
BB% 11.5% + contactsignal1.27 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.276 gives a 1.57 skill WHIP, blended 9…
run support + role2-5 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-1 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdrop3.88 ERA, 1.27 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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