Gordon Graceffo
Graceffo is a sell-high — his 2.67 ERA is BABIP luck, not skill.
His ERA of 2.67 sits nearly a run and a half under his expected ERA of 4.60, and the gap has a name: BABIP-against. That number is .221 against a league average of .295, and it needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable. He has 223. Batted balls are finding gloves at a rate that will not continue, and his expected ERA has been climbing across the sample, so the correction is already underway. Nothing underneath the surface props the ERA up, either — he strikes out just 19.3% of batters and walks 11.0%, both worse than league average, with a hard-hit rate of 43.5% allowed. The strikeouts do not miss bats and the walks hand out bases. The box score looks like a front-line arm; the contact and command say otherwise. Sell high. Sell high now — the 4.29 ERA and 1.36 WHIP make this a drop, not a hold, once the market wises up.
VS His Norm
- Walk %11.0%—+3.3% ▲vs his ~7.7% career norm
- Strikeout %19.3%—+1.5% ▲vs his ~17.8% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.221 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.60 is 1.93 above the ERA — regression coming
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.