MLB Daily DeltaWeek 10 · June 3, 2026
Engraved portrait of Gordon Graceffo
week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Gordon Graceffo

STL·P
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10

Graceffo is a sell-high — ERA hides a 3.6-run xERA gap.

Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.

Sell High
high0.95

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.157 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 5.37 is 3.57 above the ERA — regression coming
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 12% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed46.5%
46.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+6.5%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL86 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.5%
10.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.5%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL86 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.360
.360
lg avg .315 ▲+.045too early to trust
NOISE113 / 200 TBF
xERA5.37
5.37
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.27too early to trust
NOISE113 / 200 TBF
ERA1.80
1.80
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.30too early to trust
NOISE30 / 200 IP
Strikeout %12.4%
12.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−9.6%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL113 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.7%
9.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.7%too early to trust
NOISE113 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.157
.157
lg avg .295 ▼−.138too early to trust
NOISE86 / 800 BIP