Gordon Graceffo
Graceffo is a sell-high — his ERA is running on lucky outs.
His ERA is 2.70, but the outs behind it have come too easily. His BABIP-against is .207, 88 points below the league average of .295, and that number is not reliable at 204 balls in play — it needs around 800. When batted balls start finding grass instead of gloves, the ERA moves. The stable numbers already point that direction: his expected ERA is 4.50, 1.80 runs above the surface, and that gap has been stepping up across the sample rather than shrinking. He strikes out just 18.2% of batters against a 22.0% league average, and he walks 11.0% against 8.0%. A modest strikeout rate and shaky command leave no foundation under the line. Sell high. 2 K, 4.22 ERA, 1.37 WHIP rest of season says drop — deep-league streaming-only arm, not the sell-high asset the inflated line implies.
VS His Norm
- Walk %11.0%—+3.3% ▲vs his ~7.7% career norm
- Strikeout %18.2%—+0.4% ▲vs his ~17.8% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.207 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.50 is 1.80 above the ERA — regression coming
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.