MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Randy Vásquez
week 31
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Randy Vásquez

SD·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell stable xERA 5.54 +1.44 vs league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling; move on.high 0.90
ROSK 0ERA 5.04WHIP 1.34W 0–0SV 0

Vásquez is a sell — the expected ERA is climbing and the strikeouts aren't coming.

His expected ERA is 5.54, a run and a half above the league average of 4.1, and it has been stepping up across the sample rather than settling. The strikeout rate explains why: 14.8%, well under the league's 22% and below his own 15.5% career baseline, and trending down. A pitcher who misses that few bats lets hitters put the ball in play, and they are doing damage when they do — 43.2% hard-hit and 9.6% barrels allowed, both above league, on 458 batted balls, past the point where those numbers become trustworthy. His walk rate of 6.3% keeps the free passes down, but that is the only thing working in his favor. There is no suppressed BABIP-against to blame here and no luck to give back. The profile is what it is. Sell. 0 K and a 5.04 ERA ROS make this streaming-only — a fade to drop, not stash.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %6.3%—−1.9% ▼vs his ~8.2% career norm
  • Strikeout %14.8%—−0.7% ▼vs his ~15.5% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.54 +1.44 vs league with no luck excuse
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed43.2%
43.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.2%vs his norm —
458 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.6%
9.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
458 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.356
.356*
lg avg .315 ▲+.041vs his norm —
587 / 200 TBF
xERA5.54
5.54*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.44vs his norm —
587 / 200 TBF
ERA3.90
3.90*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.20vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
140.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %14.8%
norm14.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−7.2%vs his norm −0.7% ▼
587 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.3%
norm6.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm −1.9% ▼
587 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.283
.283*
lg avg .295 ▼−.012vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
458 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.7%
9.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
587 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.3%
28.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
587 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.1 mph
95.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.1 mphvs his norm —
2226 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 14.8%→15.0%signal0 K — K% 14.8% (signal) held to career ~15.5% → projected 15.0% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.54signal5.04 ERA — xERA 5.54 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 60 IP.
BB% 6.3% + contactsignal1.34 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.288 gives a 1.36 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 5.04 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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