week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Mark Manfredi
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.51); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Manfredi is a hold — league average, with little settled behind it.
ROS projects K 2 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.51)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed46.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+6.0%vs his norm —
50 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.0%
lg avg 8.0% 0.0%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
50 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.325
lg avg .315 ▲+.010vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
75 / 200 TBF
xERA4.51
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.41vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
75 / 200 TBF
ERA3.06
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.04vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
17.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
75 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.0%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
75 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.286
lg avg .295 ▼−.009vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
50 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
75 / 60 TBF
Chase %22.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−6.5%vs his norm —
75 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.3 mphvs his norm —
298 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.3%→21.8%signal0 K — K% 21.3% (signal) lifted to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 21.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.51noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.51 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 1 IP.
BB% 12.0% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.53 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.