MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 28, 2026
Engraved portrait of Janson Junk
week 18
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Janson Junk

MIA·P
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
Hold · steady skill near league average (4.01); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 34ERA 4.01WHIP 1.33W 2–3SV 0

Junk is a hold — stable skill, nothing to buy or sell.

His xERA is 4.01, essentially league average, and he has faced 316 batters — well past the point where xERA stabilizes. Actual ERA will fluctuate, but no single unstable metric is inflating or deflating his line. His strikeout rate (18.0%) and walk rate (6.3%) are both a touch below league average, but the swing-and-miss and chase rates land near league norms, and his hard-hit and barrel rates allowed are also close to average. xERA has been stepping down across his recent outings, but the broader sample says he is a roughly league-average pitcher with no pronounced weakness or luck story. If he is on your roster, hold. If not, there is no edge here. Hold. 34 K and a 4.01 ERA draft as a streaming-only option, not a must-hold, so waive him if better depth emerges.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %6.3%—+2.1% ▲vs his ~4.2% career norm
  • Strikeout %18.0%—+0.7% ▲vs his ~17.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.01)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.4%
41.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —
237 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.8%
6.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
237 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.310
.310*
lg avg .315 ▼−.005vs his norm —
316 / 200 TBF
xERA4.01
4.01*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.09vs his norm —
316 / 200 TBF
ERA4.89
4.89*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.79vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
73.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.0%
norm18.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.0%vs his norm +0.7% ▲
316 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.3%
norm6.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm +2.1% ▲
316 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.305
.305*
lg avg .295 ▲+.010vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
237 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.4%
8.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —
316 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.0%
28.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
316 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.3 mph
94.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.3 mphvs his norm —
1189 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.0%→17.7%signal34 K — K% 18.0% (signal) tempered to career ~17.3% → projected 17.7% over ~48 remaining…
xERA 4.01signal4.01 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 4.01 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.3% + contactsignal1.33 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.298 gives a 1.35 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role2-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop34 K ROS, 4.01 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups