MLB Daily DeltaWeek 12 · June 13, 2026
Engraved portrait of Janson Junk
week 12
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Janson Junk

MIA·P
data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (3.88); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60
ROSK 68ERA 3.88WHIP 1.31W 3–7SV 0

Junk is a hold — league average with a downward xERA trend.

His xERA sits at 3.88, just below the league average of 4.10, and the sample is large enough to trust. More importantly, his xERA has been stepping down across the sample, which suggests he is throwing better now than when the season started. His expected wOBA allowed is .310, also near league average. His strikeout rate is 16.9%, below the league mark of 22.0%, but he also walks very few at 5.1% against 8.0% league. His hard-hit and barrel rates allowed are roughly in line with league. There is no outlier pulling the numbers in either direction. If he keeps the ball in the park, he can be useful, but there's no buy signal or sell signal here. Hold. 68 K / 3.88 ERA / 1.31 WHIP — a streaming-only arm in deep leagues; hold if you have him.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %5.1%—+0.9% ▲vs his ~4.2% career norm
  • Strikeout %16.9%—−0.4% ▼vs his ~17.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.88)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.6%
41.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
197 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.6%
6.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
197 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.310
.310*
lg avg .315 ▼−.005vs his norm —
255 / 200 TBF
xERA3.88
3.88*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.22vs his norm —
255 / 200 TBF
ERA4.80
4.80*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.70vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
60 / 200 IP
Strikeout %16.9%
norm16.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.1%vs his norm −0.4% ▼
255 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.1%
norm5.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.9%vs his norm +0.9% ▲
255 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.302
.302*
lg avg .295 ▲+.007vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
197 / 800 BIP

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 16.9%→17.1%signal68 K — K% 16.9% (signal) held to career ~17.3% → projected 17.1% over ~94 remaining IP.
xERA 3.88signal3.88 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.88 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 5.1% + contactsignal1.31 WHIP — a 5% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.297 gives a 1.31 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role3-7 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop68 K ROS, 3.88 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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