MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 30, 2026
Engraved portrait of Paxton Schultz
week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Paxton Schultz

WSH·P
data as of September 30, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see BABIP-against 0.376 elevated and unstable, the 6.40 ERA overstates the damage; but luck-free xERA 5.05 is +0.95 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.55
ROSK 0ERA 3.72WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0–0

Schultz is a hold — the ERA overstates it, but don't buy.

His 6.40 ERA is not the whole story, but it is not hiding a bargain either. The number inflating it is his BABIP-against: .376, against a league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 107, so that gap is luck, not skill. The problem is what sits underneath. His expected ERA is 5.05 — nearly a full run above the league average of 4.10 — so the level he regresses toward is still below average. Nothing in the stable metrics argues for a buy: hard-hit rate and barrel rate allowed are both right at league, strikeout rate is slightly below, and his swinging-strike rate of 8.4% trails the league's 11.0%. This is limited data, with no baseline or trend to lean on. The panic is wrong; so is the buy. Hold. 0 K and 3.72 ERA over the ROS is a deep-league hold only — no streaming value, no drop, just status quo.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %20.9%—−4.1% ▼vs his ~25.0% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.376 elevated and unstable — the 6.40 ERA overstates the damage
  • xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 5.05 is +0.95 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.3%
39.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
107 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.4%
believable since May 298.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
107 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.342
.342*
lg avg .315 ▲+.027vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
153 / 200 TBF
xERA5.05
5.05*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.95vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
153 / 200 TBF
ERA6.40
6.40*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.30vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
32.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.9%
norm20.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm −4.1% ▼
153 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.8%
norm7.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm +1.1% ▲Walk % is above his ~6.7% norm — expect it to fall.
153 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.376
.376*
lg avg .295 ▲+.081vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
107 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.4%
8.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —
153 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.2%
27.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
153 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.6 mph
93.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.4 mphvs his norm —
610 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.9%→23.2%signal0 K — K% 20.9% (signal) lifted to career ~25.0% → projected 23.2% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.05noise3.72 ERA — xERA 5.05 (noise) blended 2% skill / 98% league 3.70 at 22 IP.
BB% 7.8% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.306 gives a 1.40 skill WHIP, blended 2%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0-0 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.72 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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