MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 28, 2026
Engraved portrait of Paxton Schultz
week 18
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Paxton Schultz

WSH·P
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
Hold · wait & see BABIP-against 0.366 elevated and unstable, the 5.87 ERA overstates the damage; but luck-free xERA 4.76 is +0.66 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.55
ROSK 22ERA 3.72WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0–2

Schultz is a hold — the ERA is noise, but the skill is also below average.

His ERA is 5.87, but that number is inflated by a .366 BABIP-against — 71 points above league average, and BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable. He has 99. So the ERA overstates the damage. But the skill beneath it is not a buy: his expected ERA is 4.76, still 0.66 runs above league average, and that number is not yet stable (143 batters faced of 200 needed). His strikeout rate is 21.7%, just below league average, and his swinging-strike rate is 8.4% (three points below league), indicating below-average stuff. Contact quality allowed is roughly league average. Limited data: this call rests on a small sample with no clear trajectory. The ER A will improve as the BABIP normalizes, but the ceiling is average at best. Hold. His 22 K / 3.72 ERA / 1.24 WHIP / 0-0 W / 0-2 SV line is a deep-league hold — wait for more data.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %21.7%—−3.3% ▼vs his ~25.0% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.366 elevated and unstable — the 5.87 ERA overstates the damage
  • xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 4.76 is +0.66 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.4%
37.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —
99 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.1%
believable since May 299.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
99 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.335
.335*
lg avg .315 ▲+.020vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
143 / 200 TBF
xERA4.76
4.76*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.66vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
143 / 200 TBF
ERA5.87
5.87*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.77vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
30.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.7%
norm21.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm −3.3% ▼
143 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.7%
norm7.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm +1.0% ▲Walk % is above his ~6.7% norm — expect it to fall.
143 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.366
.366*
lg avg .295 ▲+.071vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
99 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.4%
8.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —
143 / 60 TBF
Chase %26.0%
26.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.5%vs his norm —
143 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.6 mph
93.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.4 mphvs his norm —
561 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.7%→23.6%signal22 K — K% 21.7% (signal) lifted to career ~25.0% → projected 23.6% over ~19 remaining IP.
xERA 4.76noise3.72 ERA — xERA 4.76 (noise) blended 2% skill / 98% league 3.70 at 22 IP.
BB% 7.7% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.304 gives a 1.37 skill WHIP, blended 2%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0-2 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.72 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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