week 27
this weekSELL-HIGH
last week—
Sam Aldegheri
data as of September 30, 2026·week 27
Sell High strikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — BABIP-against 0.245 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 5.51 is 0.43 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.72 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Aldegheri is a sell-high — the ERA hides weak stuff.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %14.6%—−0.8% ▼vs his ~15.4% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.245 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 5.51 is 0.43 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.9%vs his norm —
111 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —
111 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.355
lg avg .315 ▲+.040vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
151 / 200 TBF
xERA5.51
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.41vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
151 / 200 TBF
ERA5.08
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.98vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
33.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %14.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−7.4%vs his norm −0.8% ▼
151 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.3%vs his norm −2.0% ▼Walk % is below his ~13.3% norm — expect it to rise.
151 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.245
lg avg .295 ▼−.050vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
111 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
151 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
151 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.1 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.9 mphvs his norm —
610 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 14.6%→15.1%signal0 K — K% 14.6% (signal) lifted to career ~15.4% → projected 15.1% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.51noise3.70 ERA — xERA 5.51 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 11 IP.
BB% 11.3% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.288 gives a 1.60 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.