MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
week 27
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Daniel Duarte

NYM·P
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Sell High BABIP-against 0.197 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 2.87 is 0.75 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.85
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Duarte is a sell-high — his 2.12 ERA is BABIP luck.

His ERA is 2.12, and the number propping it up is his BABIP-against: .197, nearly 100 points below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 74. That gap is luck, not skill. Strip out the noise and his expected ERA is 2.87 — 0.75 runs above the actual figure, and that gap is the regression coming. The skill metrics underneath are solid but not dominant: he strikes out 26.8% of batters, a bit above league, and his hard-hit rate allowed of 24.3% is well below the 40% league mark. There is real ability here, but the ERA is running well ahead of it. With no track record and only 112 batters faced, this is a limited-data call resting on the first sample of the season. Sell high while the surface line still holds. With the 3.70 ERA / 1.24 WHIP ROS line projecting the fall, that deep-league trade window is open — sell before the surface cracks.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %26.8%—+9.9% ▲vs his ~16.9% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.197 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.87 is 0.75 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed24.3%
24.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−15.7%vs his norm —
74 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.8%
6.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
74 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.263
.263*
lg avg .315 ▼−.052vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
112 / 200 TBF
xERA2.87
2.87*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.23vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
112 / 200 TBF
ERA2.12
2.12*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.98vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
29.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.8%
norm26.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.8%vs his norm +9.9% ▲
112 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.3%
norm6.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm −7.7% ▼Walk % is below his ~13.9% norm — expect it to rise.
112 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.197
.197*
lg avg .295 ▼−.098vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
74 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.9%
11.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
112 / 60 TBF
Chase %39.2%
39.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+10.7%vs his norm —
112 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.0 mph
95.0 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.0 mphvs his norm —
463 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.8%→20.4%signal0 K — K% 26.8% (signal) tempered to career ~16.9% → projected 20.4% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 2.87noise3.70 ERA — xERA 2.87 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 2 IP.
BB% 6.3% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.286 gives a 1.15 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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