MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Fernando Cruz
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekSELL-HIGH

Fernando Cruz

NYY·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
ON THE 60-DAY IL
flipped from SELL-HIGH
Buy stable xERA 3.30, 0.80 below league, production is earned; add now.high 0.84
ROSK 0ERA 3.30WHIP 1.38W 0–0SV 0

Cruz is a buy — his strikeout skill is real and earned.

His expected ERA is 3.30 — 0.80 below the league average of 4.10 — and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The contact suppression underneath it is genuine: his xwOBA allowed is .281 against a league mark of .315, and he holds hitters to a 27.1% hard-hit rate while the league sits at 40.0%. He strikes out 28.6% of batters, well above league, and his swinging-strike rate of 17.1% backs up that the stuff is missing bats. The one soft spot is the 13.7% walk rate — he gives away more free passes than the league — but the bat-missing holds that damage down, and his expected ERA is stepping down across the sample rather than drifting. The skill is real and the sample supports it. Buy. A 3.30 ERA and 1.38 WHIP with 0 SV is a deep-league hold — an asset worth adding now, not a streamer.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %28.6%—−6.7% ▼vs his ~35.3% career norm
  • Walk %13.7%—+1.9% ▲vs his ~11.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.30, 0.80 below league — production is earned
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed27.1%
27.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−12.9%vs his norm —
133 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.0%
9.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —
133 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.281
.281*
lg avg .315 ▼−.034vs his norm —
234 / 200 TBF
xERA3.30
3.30*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.80vs his norm —
234 / 200 TBF
ERA3.13
3.13*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.97vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
54.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.6%
norm28.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.6%vs his norm −6.7% ▼
234 / 70 TBF
Walk %13.7%
norm13.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.7%vs his norm +1.9% ▲
234 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.270
.270*
lg avg .295 ▼−.025vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
133 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %17.1%
17.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.0%vs his norm —
234 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.3%
29.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
234 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.2 mph
93.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.8 mphvs his norm —
944 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 28.6%→31.7%signal0 K — K% 28.6% (signal) lifted to career ~35.3% → projected 31.7% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.30signal3.30 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.30 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 13.7% + contactsignal1.38 WHIP — a 14% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.291 gives a 1.45 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.30 ERA, 1.38 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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