week 25
this weekBUY
last weekSELL-HIGH
Fernando Cruz
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 15-DAY IL
flipped from SELL-HIGH
Buy stable xERA 3.27, 0.83 below league, production is earned; add now.high 0.85 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 6ERA 3.27WHIP 1.38W 0–1SV 0
Cruz is a buy — his strikeout skill is real and earned.
Stable, above-average skill with no luck propping it up. Buy.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %28.6%—−6.7% ▼vs his ~35.3% career norm
- Walk %13.7%—+1.9% ▲vs his ~11.8% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.27, 0.83 below league — production is earned
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed27.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−12.9%vs his norm —
133 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —
133 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.281
lg avg .315 ▼−.034vs his norm —
234 / 200 TBF
xERA3.27
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.83vs his norm —
234 / 200 TBF
ERA3.13
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.97vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
54.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.6%vs his norm −6.7% ▼
234 / 70 TBF
Walk %13.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.7%vs his norm +1.9% ▲
234 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.270
lg avg .295 ▼−.025vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
133 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %17.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.0%vs his norm —
234 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
234 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.8 mphvs his norm —
944 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 28.6%→31.7%signal6 K — K% 28.6% (signal) lifted to career ~35.3% → projected 31.7% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 3.27signal3.27 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.27 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 13.7% + contactsignal1.38 WHIP — a 14% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.291 gives a 1.45 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.27 ERA, 1.38 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.