week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Jonathan Loáisiga
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell High BABIP-against 0.262 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 3.00 is 0.83 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.88 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 14ERA 3.69WHIP 1.24W 1–1SV 1–1
Loáisiga is a sell-high — ERA is BABIP luck, not skill.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %17.9%—−3.5% ▼vs his ~21.4% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.262 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.00 is 0.83 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed31.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−8.2%vs his norm —
110 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.4%vs his norm —
110 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.271
lg avg .315 ▼−.044vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
145 / 200 TBF
xERA3.00
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.10vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
145 / 200 TBF
ERA2.17
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.93vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
37.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.1%vs his norm −3.5% ▼
145 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm −2.0% ▼Walk % is below his ~7.5% norm — expect it to rise.
145 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.262
lg avg .295 ▼−.033vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
110 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
145 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.1%vs his norm —
145 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.3 mphvs his norm —
561 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.9%→19.9%signal14 K — K% 17.9% (signal) lifted to career ~21.4% → projected 19.9% over ~20 remaining IP.
xERA 3.00noise3.69 ERA — xERA 3.00 (noise) blended 2% skill / 98% league 3.70 at 22 IP.
BB% 5.5% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.29 skill WHIP, blended 2%…
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)1-1 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep2 SV, 3.69 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.