week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Jonathan Loáisiga
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Loáisiga is a sell-high — his ERA is BABIP luck.
His ERA sits at 2.49, but the skill metrics do not back it. The main driver is a suppressed BABIP-against of .273, 22 points below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 68 — that gap is luck, not skill. Strip out the bad-luck sequencing and his expected ERA jumps to 3.55, more than a run higher. Meanwhile, his strikeout rate has stepped down across the sample and now sits at 15.1%, well below the league average of 22%, and that number is stable. There is no elite-stuff story to fall back on when the BABIP normalizes. The ERA is the market price; the underlying data says sell. Sell high.
Sell High
high0.95
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.273 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.55 is 1.06 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.3%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL68 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.6%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL68 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.299
lg avg .315 ▼−.016too early to trust
NOISE86 / 200 TBF
xERA3.55
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.55too early to trust
NOISE86 / 200 TBF
ERA2.49
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.61too early to trust
NOISE21.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %15.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.9%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL86 / 70 TBF
Walk %4.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.3%too early to trust
NOISE86 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.273
lg avg .295 ▼−.022too early to trust
NOISE68 / 800 BIP