week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Jonathan Loáisiga
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell High luck-free xERA 2.96 is 0.53 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.271 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.86 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 3ERA 2.96WHIP 1.23W 0–0SV 0–0
Loáisiga is a sell-high — his ERA is running on luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Walk %4.8%—−2.7% ▼vs his ~7.5% career norm
- Strikeout %19.0%—−2.4% ▼vs his ~21.4% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.271 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 2.96 is 0.53 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.9%vs his norm —
175 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.0%vs his norm —
175 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.268
lg avg .315 ▼−.047vs his norm —
231 / 200 TBF
xERA2.96
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.14vs his norm —
231 / 200 TBF
ERA2.43
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.67vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
59.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.0%vs his norm −2.4% ▼
231 / 70 TBF
Walk %4.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.2%vs his norm −2.7% ▼
231 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.271
lg avg .295 ▼−.024vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
175 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
231 / 60 TBF
Chase %36.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.7%vs his norm —
231 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.5 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.5 mphvs his norm —
865 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.0%→20.1%signal3 K — K% 19.0% (signal) lifted to career ~21.4% → projected 20.1% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 2.96signal2.96 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.96 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 4.8% + contactsignal1.23 WHIP — a 5% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.23 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterstandard1 SV, 2.96 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.