MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Jonathan Loáisiga
week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Jonathan Loáisiga

AZ·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.01 is 0.59 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.273 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.89
ROSK 0ERA 3.01WHIP 1.25W 0–0SV 0–0

Loáisiga is a sell-high — his 2.42 ERA is running on BABIP luck

His ERA is 2.42, but the number underneath says the run prevention isn't that good. His expected ERA is 3.01, a 0.59-run gap that points at regression. The mechanism is his BABIP-against: .273, below the .295 league average, on 199 balls in play when that stat needs about 800 to be reliable. That gap is luck, not skill, and it is holding the ERA down. The contact numbers are genuinely strong — a .269 expected wOBA allowed, 31.7% hard-hit against league average of 40% — so this is a good pitcher, not a bad one getting away with it. But his strikeout rate is 18.4%, below the 22% league average, and that limits how low the ERA can stay once the bounces even out. The surface is ahead of the skill. Sell high. Sell into the 3.01 ERA / 1.25 WHIP line — the trade window is an asset now, a drag once the bounces even out.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %18.4%—−3.0% ▼vs his ~21.4% career norm
  • Walk %5.0%—−2.5% ▼vs his ~7.5% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.273 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.01 is 0.59 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed31.7%
31.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−8.3%vs his norm —
199 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.5%
3.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.5%vs his norm —
199 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.269
believable since Aug 20.269*
lg avg .315 ▼−.046vs his norm —
261 / 200 TBF
xERA3.01
3.01*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.09vs his norm —
261 / 200 TBF
ERA2.42
2.42*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.68vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
67 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.4%
norm18.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.6%vs his norm −3.0% ▼
261 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.0%
norm5.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.0%vs his norm −2.5% ▼
261 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.273
.273*
lg avg .295 ▼−.022vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
199 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.2%
12.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
261 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.9%
35.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.4%vs his norm —
261 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.6 mph
97.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.6 mphvs his norm —
962 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.4%→19.7%signal0 K — K% 18.4% (signal) lifted to career ~21.4% → projected 19.7% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.01signal3.01 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.01 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 5.0% + contactsignal1.25 WHIP — a 5% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.289 gives a 1.25 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterstandard1 SV, 3.01 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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